Last week's spots finished 3-3 thanks to some pure incompetence from Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M's inability to get one yard. Tough one, but hopefully you got a better number than I did on Florida Atlantic to finish either 3-2-1 or 4-2.
Regardless, as always, last week was last week, so no sense in dwelling. We're onto Week 7.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, rough weeks in this gig are inevitable. I won't avoid a 2-7 stinker Saturday forever, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
For Week 7, I have highlighted my 10 favorite betting spots on Saturday's card, starting with four noon underdogs taking on undefeated teams.
I would like to apologize in advance for the collection of teams you will find below. It's a complete landfill, so get ready to hold your nose if you choose to read on. Don't say I didn't warn you — and please don't tail if you won't be able to handle a bad day backing bad teams playing bad football.
I've done it many times and am immune to the pain, but it may certainly lead to tilt for others, which you want to avoid at all costs when following someone else.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 22-17-0 +3.18 units (56.4%)
- Overall: 67-37-1 +26.60 units (64.4%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Indiana +34 |
  | 12 p.m. | Vanderbilt +31.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Purdue +19.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Georgia Southern +4.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UMass +43 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Illinois +14 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | South Carolina -2 |
  | 6:30 p.m. | Pitt +8 |
  | 7 p.m. | Georgia State +1 |
  | 9:45 p.m. | Colorado State +7.5 |
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Indiana +34 at Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This looks like a prime opportunity to buy the Hoosiers, who have two weeks to prepare after a bye week.
The offense could also have added juice (which wouldn't take much) after Indiana fired offensive coordinator Walt Bell following its most recent loss prior to the bye.
I was never a fan of Bell, so this can only lead to better results, especially since I expect some new wrinkles and looks with the added benefit of the element of surprise in Rod Carey's first game calling plays for quarterback Tayven Jackson, who will reportedly remain the starter for now.
The Hoosiers also recently brought in former Virginia Tech head man Justin Fuente as an offensive analyst to assist the offensive staff.
The Indiana defense did at least have respectable efforts against Ohio State and Louisville, holding each to under 24 points. However, this is more about fading Michigan at such a high number, which is extremely difficult for the slow-paced Wolverines to cover with the new clock rules.
Look no further than earlier this season when Jim Harbaugh's bunch went 0-3 against the spread during the nonconference slate as favorites of 36, 38 and 40. In those three contests, they never even scored enough points to cover with outputs of 30, 35 and 31 against the subpar defenses of UNLV, Bowling Green and East Carolina.
I know the Wolverines, who continue to grow on me with each passing week, have scored plenty the past two weeks. But it still remains very difficult to cover a spread this large with how slow their offense operates against an Indiana defense that will look to limit explosive plays.
It will only take a key turnover or failed long drive with the amount of possessions I project even if the new Indiana offense doesn't have any life with the staff changes and big-play wide receiver Cam Camper likely returning from injury.
Lastly, I could also see Michigan potentially coming out a bit flat for a noon kick against lowly Indiana, which should at least come out with some extra enthusiasm off of a bye following an embarrassing loss to Maryland. That might be all it takes to stay within this number.
Notable Nugget
It's a tiny sample size, but ranked favorites of 30 or more have gone just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) against FBS opponents this season with the new clock rules.
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Vanderbilt +31.5 vs. Georgia
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Amazingly, Vanderbilt has started off the season 0-7 ATS with all seven games going over the closing total. That makes the Vandy fade and over parlay a perfect 7-0 on the year.
Offense hasn't been the issue for the Dores, who have plenty of talent at wide receiver to put points up on the board. They've also had major drop issues, which have deflated the production a bit.
The defense is undoubtedly dreadful, but Vandy has certainly been hurt by costly mistakes that have led to a number of non-offensive touchdowns that have ultimately cost it covers.
It has also been snakebitten on fourth-down attempts, going just 5-of-16 (31.2%) while allowing opponents to convert five of their seven (71.4%) — both bottom-10 rates nationally.
I just can't get to this number with a Georgia team that has shown us all season it will come out extremely flat. For reference, the historically dominant Dawgs that went on to win a national title only closed -37.5 at home last year against a Vanderbilt team that had just come off an absolutely brutal stretch of games.
This Georgia team is not at that level on either side of the ball at the moment.
The Bulldogs finally woke up last week, but that was the ultimate spot in prime time "between the hedges" against an undefeated Kentucky team. Prior to last week, they showed a major level of complacency against inferior teams that I had concerns about coming into the season after back-to-back national titles and a hilariously easy schedule.
I can see them continuing to just go through the motions until their next big game. And it doesn't get much sleepier than a noon kick against Vanderbilt after a big game in a near-empty stadium — although, there will probably be more Georgia fans than Vanderbilt ones.
I don't expect Vanderbilt to get many stops, but it has enough talent on offense to get on the board a few times to stay within this big number, especially if quarterback AJ Swann returns from injury.
There isn't a huge drop-off to Ken Seals, but Swann gives the offense a higher ceiling and he almost came back last week with head coach Clark Lea even giving him the "OR" designation on the depth chart.
Plus, sticking with the theme of this week, it's just not as easy for a slow-paced top-tier team to cover these giant numbers with the new clock rules.
Notable Nugget
In SEC games, favorites of 30 or more have gone 9-19 ATS (32.1%) since 2005, per Action Labs.
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Purdue +19.5 vs. Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
Yes, I'm starting off the day with a trio of noon dogs going up against the top three ranked teams in the country. What could possibly go wrong?
I'm just not a believer in these Buckeyes, who looked awful after the bye week against Maryland. Now, they head to West Lafayette a week before hosting Penn State in one of their two most important games of the regular season.
They could easily get caught looking past a Purdue team that will treat its biggest home game of the season as its Super Bowl.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football, but the rest of the Ohio State offense still has major issues. Kyle McCord, who is a huge downgrade from CJ Stroud, still doesn't look fully comfortable in the pocket.
Part of that can be attributed to problems along the offensive line that Ryan Day did not solve during the bye week. As a result, they just can't get the run game going either.
Just look at the body of work.
Earlier in the season, the Buckeyes struggled at times on offense against Indiana and Youngstown State. Then, against Notre Dame, they would have finished with only 10 points and 200 yards passing if the Irish hadn't dropped a wide-open interception late in the game.
Even last week against Maryland, following an off-week, they had only 10 points midway through the third quarter with seven of those 10 coming via a gifted pick-six.
In regards to Purdue, I like what I've seen in terms of improvement on offense under coordinator Graham Harrell and Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card.
The Boilermakers sit at 2-4 on the season after a loss to Iowa, but they've had some misleading final scores and close losses due to turnover and Finishing Drives misfortune.
Even last week, turnovers and a missed field goal cost them in a close loss in Iowa City despite outgaining the Hawkeyes, 343-291.
Ohio State's defense is certainly improved in its second year under coordinator Jim Knowles, but the defensive line isn't getting as much pressure as I anticipated given the talent level up front. As a result, Card should have enough success moving the ball through the air to stay within three touchdowns.
I'm a bit worried about the speed and talent advantage of the Ohio State receivers against a slow-footed Purdue secondary, but I have a lot of respect for Purdue head coach Ryan Walters, who seems to be rounding that unit into a little better form as they adjust to his scheme.
He should at least have a rock-solid defensive game plan.
Notable Nugget
Since the origin of the AP Poll in 1936, no program has more wins when unranked against top-five teams than Purdue. The Spoilermakers have 17 — six more than USC, which has the second-most with 11.
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Georgia Southern +4.5 at James Madison
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
If you're not having enough fun yet, how about a fourth noon pup taking on an undefeated team? I'm either going to look extremely smart or really dumb, but at least I'm used to the latter.
This is a huge game in the Sun Belt even if the undefeated Dukes can't play for a Sun Belt title due to an insanely archaic NCAA rule.
JMU has certainly exceeded everyone's expectations 1.5 seasons into its FBS transition, but I had it circled as a potential fade candidate after six weeks.
Yes, the Dukes have jumped out to a 5-0 start, but all four of their wins against FBS competition have come by one possession. That includes a crazy comeback in a one-point win over Virginia and a two-point victory over Troy.
They also won at Utah State by seven in a game that was tied late in the fourth quarter and held on for an eight-point home victory over South Alabama. In those four wins, they are only +31 in total net yards.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has rushed out to a 4-1 start with all four wins coming in convincing fashion. Plus, it took a road loss at Wisconsin thanks to six turnovers in an otherwise statistically even game.
Most importantly, the Eagles offense matches up extremely well with JMU. The Dukes boast one of the best defensive fronts at the Group of Five level, which has led to absolute domination against the run.
On the season, JMU ranks second in Defensive Line Yards and has held opponents to a meager 1.3 yards per carry, which leads the nation by over 0.5 yards.
However, the pass defense has struggled at times, which could spell doom against Georgia Southern's extremely pass-heavy Air Raid offense led by former Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin.
James Madison also ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in tackling, per PFF, and dead last in defensive explosiveness, so the big plays will be there for the Eagles.
On the other side of the ball, JMU wants to establish the run with its top-30 rush rate to set up the rest of its offense.
However, it ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which has led to a rushing attack that sits outside the top 100 in both EPA per Rush and Success Rate.
I just don't think this offense is as efficient as it may appear on the surface with quarterback Jordan McCloud also having 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions despite an equal number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays (five).
The JMU offense should still get its points against a subpar Georgia Southern defense, but I don't think it'll get much on the ground, which will lead to many known passing situations where McCloud is overdue for a critical mistake or two.
Ultimately, this looks like a potential shootout that could simply come down to the last team with the ball, so I'm happy to take the points here.
For what it's worth, that's exactly what happened last year in a very similar spot when the Eagles pulled out a 45-38 victory against an undefeated Dukes squad in a game that featured an astounding 1,265 yards of total offense.
Notable Nugget
Since making the FBS transition last season, James Madison has gone 13-3 straight up and 10-6 ATS.
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UMass +43 at Penn State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This might be the last straw for anybody who is still reading this, but let's keep the good times rolling by backing UMass on the road in Happy Valley against an undefeated Penn State squad that owns the longest cover streak in the nation.
The logic here is pretty simple outside of showing value on the number.
First off, this is a horrible spot for Penn State. It's playing a cupcake the week before one of the biggest games of the season against Ohio State.
I doubt the Nittany Lions want to show too much and will likely value the rest and health of some starters once they inevitably build a big lead in the second half.
Secondly, the Penn State offense has zero explosiveness. In fact, it ranks second-to-worst in that category nationally, ahead of only Eastern Michigan. This is a methodical offense that grinds it down the field, which just eats up the clock with the new rules.
Yes, the Nittany Lions have covered every game this year with almost no explosiveness on offense, but they've benefited immensely from their dominant defense, which has given them a plethora of short fields to work with. That has led to the nation's best turnover margin of +11.
Plus, they really did have no business covering against Northwestern, West Virginia and even Illinois in a game where they only outgained the Illini by 30.
Meanwhile, the UMass defense has been a major disappointment under defensive-minded head coach Don Brown, but the offense has exceeded expectations despite dealing with a number of quarterback injuries.
In their past three games, the Minutemen have averaged just under 28 points and 450 yards per game and now have starting quarterback Taisun Phommachanh back healthy under center.
The Minutemen also should have a few extra wins in their pocket after hard-luck losses against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico. Despite outgaining the Eagles and Lobos by 260 combined yards, they lost by three in overtime and two in regulation on a last-minute touchdown.
This team is still bad, but not as bad as the version we've seen in recent seasons since it actually has an offense with a pulse and a bit more respectable depth.
In fairness, this is a massive step up in class for the UMass offense, so it's hard to expect much against one of the best defenses in the country. However, I can see it finding the end zone once or twice even if it has to come late in a blowout.
Although, I'm not even sure Penn State will cover even in a shutout with how its offense has been operating.
I can't wait for James Franklin to run a fake knee double reverse pass up 40 with 11 seconds left with the third-string punter.
Notable Nugget
Penn State is 10-0-1 ATS over its past 11 games, including the postseason.
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Illinois +14 at Maryland
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
OK, since there's no way anybody is left, I can now recommend an Illinois team I've mocked all season en route to an 0-6 ATS start.
I hated everything about this Illini team coming into the season, starting with the defense that lost a trio of defensive backs taken in the top 75 of the NFL Draft and a highly-respected coordinator in Ryan Walters.
I've also never been high on Ole Miss transfer quarterback Luke Altmyer, who's operating an offense that sorely misses running back Chase Brown, who also left for the NFL.
However, to me, this is the bottom of the market on Illinois in game I project closer to 10.5.
Plus, this doesn't set up as a great spot for Maryland after a hard-fought loss at Ohio State in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.
The Terps, who have historically struggled after playing teams ranked inside the top 10 (5-13-1 ATS), could come out a bit flat for this one.
Illinois will likely get a few offensive linemen back, which should help up front.
The running back room has been decimated by injuries, but I actually like what I've seen from the young backs who will get the bulk of the workload now for a Bret Bielema offense that always wants to ugly up a game by leaning on a methodical ground-and-pound attack.
That could potentially work in this particular matchup against a Maryland run defense that can be pushed around.
Illinois also has been the unluckiest team in the country in terms of field position, which has certainly deflated its numbers on both sides of the ball over a small sample size. There are also some other indicators that suggest some potential looming positive regression.
Ultimately, this number is just too high in a prime buy-low spot with a team that stylistically is intriguing as a bigger underdog going up against a team coming off an emotional loss.
It also doesn't hurt that Illinois has one extra day of rest and preparation after playing last Friday night.
Notable Nugget
At Illinois, head coach Brett Bielema owns a sparkling 9-2 ATS (81.8%) mark as an underdog of more than a field goal, covering by over 10 points per game. That includes a 6-1 mark against the number on the road.
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South Carolina -2 vs. Florida
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
OK, I'll finally offer a reasonable take where I won't get tomatoes thrown at me. Let's fade Graham Mertz on the road in the SEC, where we essentially just need to win the game.
We also get to back a South Carolina team that should come in much healthier (maybe wide receiver Antwane "Juice" Wells even returns) than it has been after a bye week — a situation where head coach Shane Beamer has thrived in his first two years.
That extra time should also really benefit a very young offensive line that has clearly needed time to jell.
Plus, it will get to face a Gators squad that has dropped 13 of its last 14 away from the Swamp, including a bad loss at Vanderbilt and a 23-point loss at South Carolina in 2021.
Not only will the Gamecocks come in with much fresher legs and more time to prepare, but they have also talked at length about wanting to avenge last year's embarrassing 38-6 loss in Gainesville. I expect them to come out with their hair on fire against a quarterback that hasn't shown well in his career against competent opponents.
This is still a very limited Florida passing attack and an overrated defense that got shredded by Kentucky and couldn't even slow down a Utah offense with a backup quarterback who hasn't found any footing since that season-opening win.
Plus, not only does this set up as a nice situational spot for South Carolina, but I believe it also comes into this SEC showdown a bit undervalued in the market after one of the most difficult schedules in the country to date with all three losses coming against ranked teams with a combined 15-1 record in Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia. All three of those also came away from home.
I'll side with the home team coming off of a bye with the better quarterback laying under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Shane Beamer is a perfect 3-0 ATS with extra rest during his young head coaching tenure, covering by over three touchdowns per game.
His South Carolina team actually won all three games outright as underdogs against SEC opponents.
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Pitt +8 vs. Louisville
6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Look, I've been backing trash on Saturdays since I was a clueless bettor in high school two decades ago (yes, I'm old). I'm used to holding my nose and hitting submit, but this is the one that made me cringe the most out of all of the horrific teams I had already bet.
Unfortunately, I just had to play this number and spot with Pittsburgh coming off of a bye at the bottom of its market value against a Louisville team hitting the highway after a huge win in a hyped home spot against Notre Dame.
That bye week can only lead to good things for a Pittsburgh offense that has been beyond dreadful.
As a result of the extreme ineptitude on that side of the ball, the Panthers benched quarterback Phil Jurkovec — who's potentially moving to tight end — and turned to Christian Veilleux under center.
It's hard to forecast what we'll get from the Penn State transfer, but it can't get any worse than Jurkovec, who PFF has rated 121st out of 131 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps.
Not only is this a good situational spot for Pitt with a potential new-look offense that has made other changes at wide receiver and up front, but it's also a potential letdown for Louisville after that huge win over Notre Dame.
However, I believe that result spoke more about an exhausted Irish team in a brutal spot of their own after a grueling stretch of games.
Plus, I just haven't really been impressed with Louisville's overall body of work.
The Cardinals easily could've lost to a Georgia Tech team that has since demoted its defensive coordinator, an Indiana team that recently fired its offensive coordinator and an NC State team that recently changed quarterbacks.
The defense still has some holes after losing key pieces from last year's unit, and Jack Plummer has made too many turnover-worthy throws so far this season.
Keep in mind Louisville benefited from five takeaways in that victory over Notre Dame. That has been a theme in 2023 for Louisville, which ranks third in FBS with 14 takeaways.
In comparison, Pitt only has four, so potential looming turnover regression could work in the home team's favor here.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number and like the spot.
Notable Nugget
Pat Narduzzi is 9-2 ATS (81.8%) with 10 or more days between games, covering by over a touchdown on average.
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Georgia State +1 vs. Marshall
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
This is a brutal situational spot for the Thundering Herd, who will play for a fourth straight Saturday following three hard-fought one-possession games, including last week's thriller against NC State.
They also have a date at home with first-place James Madison on a short week coming up next Thursday.
Meanwhile, Georgia State should come in with fresh legs after a bye week, which should give it a significant prep edge against a Marshall team hitting the highway for a second straight road game.
Additionally, this is a pretty good matchup for the Panthers, who rely on two things for offense: their rushing attack with dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger and running back Marcus Carroll in addition to hitting explosive plays.
Well, that's good news this week against a Marshall defense that has a much stronger pass defense and has allowed far too many explosive plays in 2023.
On the season, Georgia State's offense ranks sixth in overall offensive explosiveness and second nationally on rushing plays. That could spell trouble for a Marshall defense that ranks seventh worst overall in that department and dead last on rushing plays.
When the Herd have the ball, everything starts with star back Rasheen Ali. However, the Georgia State run defense is far and away the strength of a unit that really struggles to defend the pass after losing its two best defensive backs from a season ago.
The Panthers can bottle up Ali, and I just don't trust Cam Fancher to consistently beat this porous secondary without making mistakes.
Notable Nugget
Backing Sun Belt home teams in conference play has historically been a losing proposition for bettors.
Since 2005, they have gone just 300-391-8 ATS (43.4%) for the lowest ROI (-15.7%) of any league over that period.
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Colorado State +7.5 vs. Boise State
9:45 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
After jumping out to a 17-3 lead last week, Colorado State got absolutely embarrassed by Utah State, which finished with over 600 yards of total offense.
As a result, I expect an inspired effort in a home hype revenge spot against a Boise State team that also embarrassed the Rams last season in Jay Norvell's first season in Fort Collins.
Colorado State has bounced back nicely after losses this season.
After getting shredded by Washington State, it should have beaten in-state rival Colorado as sizable dogs. Maybe even more impressive than that effort was the ability to bounce back from that heartbreaking defeat with a win at Middle Tennessee.
Look, the Rams defense is horrid, especially against the pass. However, that's not an overwhelming strength of this Boise State offense, which is now utilizing a two-quarterback system I'm not really in love with.
Boise wants to rely on super underrated and explosive running back Ashton Jeanty, but Colorado State is much more adept at slowing down opposing ground games.
Additionally, when the Rams have the ball, they want to pass and pass some more in Norvell's Air Raid offense.
That plan of attack should succeed against a Boise State secondary that simply can't cover anybody on a unit that got absolutely decimated by attrition from last season's elite defense. The Broncos rank outside the top 100 nationally in almost every possible pass-defense metric.
For what it's worth, I'm banking on star wide receiver Tory Horton and star defensive end Mohamed Kamara suiting up for the Rams. Those are their best players on each side of the ball and likely future pros who got banged up last week.
Norvell sounded hopeful both will suit up, but I may look to buy out of some if there are more dire injury updates later in the week.
As always, follow along in the Action App for any additional plays or updates leading up to Saturday.
Notable Nugget
Jay Norvell has spent his entire coaching career in the Mountain West. As an underdog in league play, he's gone 20-7 ATS (74.1%) with an average coverage margin of just under six points.
Since 2005, he's been the fourth-most profitable coach when catching points against conference foes out of 425 coaches, per Action Labs.
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