After a huge shakeup in the Pac-12 in Week 7, the attention of the college football world now turns to the Big Ten for a massive game between Penn State and Ohio State.
But there are still more games on the docket, and I have two SEC showdowns and a Sun Belt battle I want to get out in front of in Week 8.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -335 |
Tennessee vs. Alabama Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Alabama -6.9 | Alabama -3.9 | Alabama -5.0 |
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Alabama really didn't look that impressive last weekend at home against Arkansas as it held on for a 24-21 win. The reality is that its offense has not been up to par with where it's been in years past.
The passing attack with Jalen Milroe is almost entirely built on explosive plays. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and has 15 big-time throws, which has helped Alabama to a rank of sixth in passing explosiveness. However, the Tide sit 73rd in Passing Success Rate, and Milroe comes in at 43rd in FBS in EPA/Pass.
One of the underrated aspects of Tennessee this season is how good its defense has been.
Josh Heupel's fast-paced offense always gets the headlines, but the Vols defense ranks fourth in Success Rate Allowed and 17th in EPA/Play Allowed while allowing only 4.2 yards per play (fourth in FBS).
They've been amazing versus the pass, ranking 17th in EPA/Pass, third in PFF coverage grade, and most importantly, 11th in explosive passing allowed.
The Alabama rushing attack hasn't been that efficient either, ranking outside the top 60 in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush. Jase McClellan has put up only 4.8 yards per carry, as the Tide's offensive line sits outside the top 40 in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
On the other side, Tennessee has allowed only 3.1 yards per carry and has dominated in the trenches, ranking seventh in Defensive Line Yards.
The key in this game for Tennessee is going to be its rushing attack. Alabama has struggled with giving up big plays in the run game, ranking 107th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Vols back Jaylen Wright is an incredibly explosive player who averages a staggering 7.1 yards per carry and has posted 26 runs over 10 yards on just 80 carries this season.
Tennessee's offensive line is also top-30 in Offensive Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate Allowed, so it should be able to break off some big plays on the ground.
However, Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton isn't having a great season as a passer. His PFF passing grade sits at 62.2 and he averages just 6.9 yards per attempt, so Tennessee is going to run the ball a lot in this game.
All three projection models are showing value on the Volunteers, so I would grab them at +9.5 now, as I have a hard time believing that Alabama will close as a double-digit favorite.
South Carolina vs. Missouri Odds
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -265 |
South Carolina vs. Missouri Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Missouri -10.4 | Missouri -9.9 | Missouri -7.8 |
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This line is a little too short for Missouri coming off its win at Kentucky.
I really don't know how South Carolina is going to stop the Tigers — especially when it comes to the passing game with quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden III.
Cook has been going off this season, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt with 16 big-time throws and an adjusted completion percentage of 80.8%. Cook also ranks top-10 in EPA/Pass and positive play percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.
It helps when you have one of the best wide receivers in college football at your disposal. Burden leads college football with a PFF receiving grade of 91.6, as he has already tallied 56 catches for 805 yards in only seven games.
He should have a field day against a South Carolina secondary that just allowed Florida's Graham Mertz to throw for 423 yards with 166 of those going to a single receiver in Ricky Pearsall.
It’s about time we start talking about #Mizzou WR Luther Burden in 2025 being on the same draft prospect tier as Marvin Harrison Jr. this year.
Best YAC receiver in the nation with elite ball skills. Dude’s a cheat code. pic.twitter.com/ebVUUV9Kmy
— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) October 7, 2023
On the season, South Carolina is allowing 6.4 yards per play to FBS opponents, which ranks 114th nationally. The Gamecocks also rank 124th in Success Rate Allowed and 119th in EPA per Play Allowed, as they've struggled to stop the run.
Quarterback Spencer Rattler is having a solid season, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a PFF passing grade of 75.0. He threw for 313 yards last week against Florida and has topped 300 yards passing in three of his six games this season.
But the thing with Rattler is that he isn't even in the top 40 for EPA among quarterbacks who have at least 100 pass attempts. That's a problem because the Gamecocks offense relies too much on his arm and ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate.
Missouri's defense has been solid this season, especially in the trenches. The Tigers rank top-25 in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards, so the pressure is really going to be on Rattler to keep up with Mizzou's offense.
All three projection models are showing value on the Tigers, so I would grab -6.5 before this closes even higher.
ULM vs. Georgia Southern Odds
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +530 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -780 |
Louisiana Monroe vs. Georgia Southern Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Georgia Southern -12.1 | Georgia Southern -13.3 | Georgia Southern -11.7 |
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This number is a tad too high on an Eagles team that just got housed by James Madison last weekend. Meanwhile, Louisiana Monroe almost pulled off an upset over Texas State, losing 21-20.
ULM quite literally has the worst passing attack in college football, ranking dead last in EPA/Pass. But it can run the ball, and that's where it has an advantage in this matchup.
The Warhawks are averaging 4.8 yards per carry as a team (48th in FBS) while ranking 54th in EPA/Rush and 53rd in Offensive Line Yards. Georgia Southern sits outside the top 100 in all three of those categories defensively and just allowed James Madison to run for 5.4 yards per carry last weekend.
The Eagles also rank outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives Allowed, with James Madison scoring 41 points on its eight trips inside Georgia Southern's 40-yard line in Week 7.
On the flip side, Clay Helton's offense is humming on all cylinders, but it isn't a big-play offense. The Eagles rank 111th in explosiveness, while Louisiana Monore has done a solid job of limiting big plays (21st in explosiveness allowed) despite struggling from a Success Rate perspective.
Additionally, Georgia Southern ranks 82nd in Finishing Drives, so even though the Eagles have put up some big offensive numbers, they do have flaws.
All three models show value on the Warhawks, so I'd grab them now at +16.5.
