For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, Minnesota got to the window for me, but Colorado State went down in heartbreaking fashion on a last-second field goal, ruining a great value pick by Collin.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 7-9, +4.05 units
- Overall: 67-105, +13.35 units
This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of conference road dogs that both kick off in the mid-afternoon slate.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays over 15-1 odds.
Stuckey: Purdue +120
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
This is my favorite spot of the weekend.
On the surface, one might be confused as to why a 4-3 Nebraska team is laying such a short price at home against 2-5 Purdue. Well, I think the Boilermakers — who have been a bit unlucky in a number of areas that have led to some misleading results against one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date — should be small favorites.
Meanwhile, I have Nebraska's strength of schedule ranked right around the national average.
Not only am I buying low on Purdue after a bye week, which has added benefit in the first year of a new staff, but the injury situation for Nebraska's offense has turned dire.
After already losing a pair of receivers and running backs to season-ending injuries earlier in the season, the Cornhuskers saw their three top offensive linemen — who had combined for 78 career starts — and leading receiver Billy Kemp IV join the wounded list in last week's victory over Northwestern.
As a result, head coach Matt Rhule will need to rely on a number of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores to fill in. There will likely be major growing pains.
From a matchup perspective, Nebraska has one of the nation's least efficient passing attacks, which Purdue's slow-footed secondary will welcome with open arms. The Boilermakers can simply load the box against a severely shorthanded skill position group and offensive line.
Additionally, the Cornhuskers' stingy defense has fared much better against the run, but that's not as relevant this week against Purdue's pass-heavy Air Raid attack, which is led by Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card and new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.
Boiler Up!
Wilson: Southern Miss +650
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -112 | 55 -112o / -108u | +650 |
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -108 | 55 -112o / -108u | -1000 |
While Stuckey spends his weekly handicapping looking through various trash receptacles for winners, I'm going straight to the city dump for value.
Southern Miss was deemed a corpse a number of weeks ago and failed to record an FBS win through six games. The Week 8 game at South Alabama was a lifeless effort as the Jaguars crushed the Golden Eagles, 55-3.
Southern Miss doesn't have many redeeming qualities and is listed as a 17-point underdog to Appalachian State.
The question for college football investors is if and when there's a buying point on teams with no hope for a postseason invite.
With a projection of Appalachian State winning this game by just nine points, Week 9 is as good as any for Southern Miss to try and keep head coach Will Hall in his position.
This is also a fade of a bad Appalachian State team that has lost three of its past four games.
App State has also allowed a high rate of explosives on the ground thanks in large part to a ranking of 119th in broken tackles allowed, a key stat for Southern Miss running back Frank Gore Jr. Not only has Gore created 27 missed tackles, but Southern Miss also ranks 23rd nationally in that category.
This is a showcase game for Hall to snag his first FBS victory and get off the hot seat (for now).
Plus, when looking for a potential big moneyline underdog, you want a lot of variance, which you may get in this spot after Hall said he is re-evaluating everything during the bye.
Therefore, we may see a completely new look (maybe even going back to some wildcat) from the Golden Eagles.
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