The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will head to Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee to face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a Week 3 Conference USA matchup. For those close to the programs, the rivalry is known as "100 Miles of Hate."
The Hilltoppers enter this one at 1-1 with two very different games. They were shut out by Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium before returning home to shut out Eastern Kentucky at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
The Blue Raiders also enter this one at 1-1 following a win against Tennessee Tech and a blowout loss at Ole Miss.
Both teams will enter this one eager for their first conference win to get conference play started right. The Hilltoppers enter as -7 favorites with an over/under of 54.5.
Which team will come out on top on this one? Let’s take a look at my Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee prediction on Saturday, Sept. 14.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Pick: Over 54.5
My Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 54.5 -110o/ -110u | -265 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
- Point Spread: Western Kentucky -7 (-108) · Middle Tennessee +7 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 54.5
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky -265 · Middle Tennessee +215
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Preview
Western Kentucky Betting Preview: Another Solid Offense
Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton will take his team on the road and look for a better result than his last road game, where his squad lost, 63-0, to the Crimson Tide.
Helton helped turn around this program in 2019, but he's still looking for a conference championship.
He landed journeyman quarterback TJ Finley through the portal, who should provide some stability at the position this year to chase those dreams of winning Conference USA.
Helton and his guys love to throw the ball all over the field, so having a player like Finley who has dealt with SEC defenses in the past should prove to be an advantage against Conference USA defenses.
The Hilltoppers ranked sixth nationally in pass rate last season, finishing with marks of 62nd in Passing Success Rate and 35th in passing explosiveness.
This will be important because even if Middle Tennessee State comes out with some early scoring, the Hilltoppers are comfortable throwing the ball and playing from behind to get themselves back in the game.
The other side of the coin, however, is that it can take them out of games. That happened against the Tide due to turnovers.
The Blue Raider defense is not the same caliber as the Crimson Tide defense, so I would anticipate Finley and this offense to find some success through the air here.
The problem for the Hilltoppers will be holding the lead, as they finished 125th in Rushing Success Rate a season ago. They've improved a little bit in 2024 but still sit 93rd in that area. They'll have to continue to throw to secure the win if leading early.
The Hilltoppers and defensive coordinator Tyson Summers defended the pass pretty well in 2023, ranking 52nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate last season. However, now they come in at 121st.
The problem for the Tops defense has always been stopping the run. They, like their offense, ranked 125th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate last season and now sit 118th in the same category.
Middle Tennessee Betting Preview: Mason Not Impacting Defense
The Blue Raiders didn't have the year they wanted last year under head coach Rick Stockstill, so they went out to nab Derek Mason to be their head coach after he served as Oklahoma State's defensive coordinator in 2022 and took the year off in 2023.
Mason has a lot of returning production this year, so he'll look to build on its 4-8 record from last year.
The Blue Raider offense returns starting quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who threw for over 3,000 yards last year, as well as his leading receiver from a year ago in tight end Holden Willis.
They also bring back their leading rusher in Jaiden Credle.
This is an offense that mirrors the Hilltopper, as they throw the ball on nearly 57% of plays. Being very comfortable throwing the ball, they'll never really be out of the game.
They're a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of throwing the ball, ranking 75th in Passing Success Rate.
The attack on the ground isn’t as efficient as their passing game, ranking 118th in Rushing Success Rate after sitting at 90th a season ago. The Blue Raiders will need to make some big plays in this one to propel them to a home win.
Mason’s background is on the defensive side of the ball, specifically with the defensive backs, but his team does not yet reflect that. MTSU ranks 133rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate — second-to-last nationally — so they have trouble stopping the pass consistently. That will be a problem against the Hilltoppers.
The Blue Raiders also ranked 57th in Havoc a season ago and sit 73rd in 2024, so it's still in their DNA. They could generate some key turnovers in this one that result in some easy points at home, which they'll need to win this one outright.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction
Both of these teams are pass-heavy offenses with defenses that leave a lot to be desired.
Both teams have the ability to break off chunk plays, so there's reason to believe this could be a thrilling back-and-forth game with some big offensive plays and maybe even some turnovers.
Because of the passing attacks and explosiveness, I project this game will go over 54.5 points. I expect a high-scoring affair in Murfreesboro.
Pick: Over 54.5
How to Watch Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends
- Middle Tennessee has taken 73% of the bets and generated 75% of the money.
- The under has landed 71% of the tickets but produced 87% of the case.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Weather
