Evan Engram Over 4.5 Receptions & Jaguars Moneyline Parlay (+104)
Jaguars vs. Bengals | 8:15 p.m. ET
Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has averaged 5.8 receptions per game in 11 contests this season; he's gone over 4.5 receptions eight times. In the three games he didn't cover, he had at least six targets so the volume should be there.
Engram, who enters Monday Night Football with a 78% catch rate and 4.7 average depth of target, is Trevor Lawrence's most consistent weapon in the passing game and has often been used as a safety blanket to extend drives.
Engram has an excellent matchup against the Bengals. According to FTN Fantasy's DVOA rankings, the Bengals are 30th against tight ends and allow 6.4 receptions per game, which is the second most in the league. Engram has a combined 25% target share against Cover 1 and 3 defenses, which is tied for highest on the Jaguars (per 33rd Team).
The targets should be there for Engram on MNF considering the Bengals have allowed quite a few to tight ends recently:
- Pat Freiermuth: 11
- Dalton Schultz: 6
- Dalton Kincaid: 11
- George Kittle: 11
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Yesterday, I could've played Engram's receptions line alone at plus money, but since then, it's juiced to -150.
In order to "de-juice" the odds, I'm tacking on the Jaguars moneyline. They've won seven of their last eight games and now get to face a Bengals team without Joe Burrow.
Sportsbooks have the Jags listed as double-digit favorites so I'm confident in adding them for a better payout.
