We have another lackluster primetime game in Week 13, with a 40-point total between the Jaguars and the Jake Browning-led Bengals. This is another game that looked great on paper a few weeks ago, before a quarterback injury made this one likely to be a one-sided affair.
In Browning's defense, he's performed admirably so far in tough matchups with the Ravens and Steelers. The question marks around Browning are what make this an intriguing live-betting spot, as solid play from him would give this game plenty of scoring upside.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 13
Bengals at Jaguars: Over If Cincinnati Keeps Pace — LIVE BET MADE, Over 50.5 (-115, FanDuel)
It turns out Jake Browning can look good in the right matchup, leading the Bengals to two touchdown drives. The Jaguars offense is also playing about as well as expected. Since this one is tied at 14 with just over a minute in the half, we're jumping on the over now in hopes Jacksonville pushes the pace before halftime. The best line is 50.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
The nice thing about this game for live betting is that Browning's play correlates nicely with the total, both in terms of the Bengals' own scoring and how aggressive they force the Jaguars to be.
That's partially because Jacksonville should be able to score here regardless of how they choose to attack. The Bengals defense is bad, ranking 31st in yards per play on the ground — and even worse against the pass at 32nd. The only question is how often and how quickly Jacksonville will put up points, as they're likely to play less aggressively with a lead.
The Jaguars defense is also more vulnerable against the pass, which again comes down to the play of Browning. In theory, this means a Jaguars lead helps the over — but there's a good chance if Jacksonville is in control that it's because Cincinnati can't get anything going in the pass game. It's hard to evaluate Browning ahead of this one, given that he's faced top-10 pass defenses without Tee Higgins in his first two appearances.
All things considered, we're primarily looking for excuses to take the over here. The pregame line is hovering right around 40, but hopefully we'll either get a lower number or a number that hasn't gone up as much as the score would imply. (An example of the latter would be 24 first-half points but the total going up to 42, as we'd need only 18 in the second half to get there despite pregame expectations of around 20.)
However, it's also possible the Bengals implode here. In that case, we'll be looking to catch an under with the total elevated from the Jaguars offense.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and games that are faster or slower than expected create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
