Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This applies for the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Each week, I’ll go through every NFL game on the Sunday afternoon slate to identify the players you should consider betting in the ATD market and whether the odds are worth the investment. We had a good Week 1 in this column, so here's to more of the same!
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Chargers vs. Panthers
Having to choose between Ladd McConkey or Quentin Johnston for the Chargers wasn’t on my TD bingo card for NFL Week 2, but the odds discrepancy this week makes no sense.
Both played the same amount of snaps and ran the same amount of routes in Week 1, but McConkey caught a touchdown so he's +260 and Johnston is +490? I think they’re a lot closer in probability to score than the odds indicate, especially against a Panthers secondary that got diced up by the Buccaneers, who had four touchdowns last week scored by wide receivers.
The Panthers offense is broken, or maybe we’re seeing one of the greatest buy-low spots for NFL touchdown bets because you can get a WR1 like Diontae Johnson at +360, which is absurd. I’m not quite ready to write Carolina off yet, but I’d consider Johnson since he did see two red-zone targets and led the Panthers WRs in snaps played. Bet with caution here, though.
Verdict: Quentin Johnston +490 | Diontae Johnson +360
Saints vs. Cowboys
The Saints ran the ball 37 times in Week 1 but will likely need to throw more to keep the Cowboys' defense honest. It would be more in line with how they played last season when QB Derek Carr averaged 32.2 passing attempts per game.
Carr might have some of the worst decision-making in the red zone for any QB in the NFL, but there’s one Saints receiver who I successfully bet on in Week 1 and am going right back to: TE Juwan Johnson. He cashed at +450 last week, so I’m happy to go back to him, especially with how effective TE David Njoku was against Dallas in Week 1.
I was able to cash WR Brandin Cooks last week at +320, but his odds have plummeted to +190 after his score. With TE Jake Ferguson likely sidelined and the Cowboys' WR depth already shallow, I’d start to consider WR3 Jalen Tolbert at +500 or WR4 Kavonte Turpin at +850. Tolbert played 65% of snaps while Turpin returned a punt for a touchdown last week in Cleveland.
Verdict: Juwan Johnson +400 or better | Sprinkle on Jalen Tolbert +600 & Kavontae Turpin +850
Raiders vs. Ravens
Here we go again. Another Raiders game where WR Davante Adams has massive TD odds at +250, but can you feel great betting it based on what you saw from QB Gardner Minshew last week?
Minshew looked passive in Week 1 and only looked for Adams six times in a game where motivation was at an all-time high for the All-Pro receiver. Based on the latest Raiders ATD odds, I’d invest in TE Brock Bowers at +450 — he saw a team-high eight targets — and WR3 Tre Tucker at +1000. I know my guy Dr. Nick Giffen was on Tucker in Week 1 and plans to go back to it after he played 78% of snaps and only ran six fewer routes than Adams.
I love Ravens TE Isaiah Likely, but the disrespect for TE Mark Andrews for touchdown odds is kinda insane. Andrews had to block way more in Week 1 to offset the Chiefs pass-rush and still played 74% of snaps.
I expect a bounce-back week for Andrews, who's +290 to score. His highest ATD odds last season were +165 in Week 2 against the Bengals — he scored a touchdown in that game.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Brock Bowers +450 & Tre Tucker +1000 | Mark Andrews +290
Buccaneers vs. Lions
This is the only game of the week with a total over 50 points — the ATD odds reflect that entering Bucs–Lions.
I know this sounds boring, but we have to keep riding Mike Evans TDs until they’re minus odds because he has an undeniable connection with QB Baker Mayfield.
In two games against the Lions last season, including the playoffs, Evans saw 22 targets and caught a touchdown in the teams' Divisional Round matchup. He picked up right where he left off with two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Commanders, so we'll set it and forget it here.
Where it gets tricky is betting Detroit TD scorers because the odds stack up like the Lions are scoring five TDs this week, but their team total is only 27.5. Detroit has three players with minus odds to score (David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown).
Last week, we cashed on WR Jameson Williams at +250, but he’s now down to +170. Six players had a red-zone targets in Week 1, but the only one who isn’t a starter was TE2 Brock Wright. Does that mean you bet him with a full unit? Of course not, but I'd endorse a pizza bet at +1200.
Verdict: Mike Evans +125 | Sprinkle on Brock Wright +1200
Jets vs. Titans
Jets WR Allen Lazard was awesome in Week 1 with two touchdowns. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I like him again at +390. He’s clearly one of Aaron Rodgers' preferred targets, and if he’s going to be this involved in the offense, +390 might be a steal with how little WR Mike Williams played in Week 1.
I know the Titans got off to a fast start in Week 1 and the Jets got run over by arguably a top-two team in the NFL, but I don’t feel inspired for Titans touchdown scorers here.
QB Will Levis looked awful and the Jets' pass rush should force him into making quick and decisive throws, which he hasn’t delivered on so far in his career. If Tennessee somehow gets in the red zone, I'd consider TE Chig Okonwko or slot WR Tyler Boyd. Both are around +500. If you don’t want to bet those two, just avoid the Titans altogether.
Verdict: Allen Lazard +390 | Sprinkle on Chig Okonwko & Tyler Boyd +500 if you like pain
Seahawks vs. Patriots
This will seem boring, but Seahawks WR DK Metcalf at +200 is likely where we need to go for Seahawks TD scorers. Although he wasn’t effective in Week 1 against the Broncos, he has historically thrashed man coverage, and the Patriots played man at the second-highest rate in the NFL in Week 1. With WR Tyler Lockett (+275) seemingly still on the mend and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba only at +280, Metcalf is the likely default play in a game that’s expected to be low scoring.
Last week, I said if you bet a Patriots player to score, just don’t bet on any pass-catchers. Well, RB Rhamondre Stevenson was the lone TD scorer at +230 and books have wisely adjusted accordingly with him at +130.
WR K.J. Osborn led the team in snaps played and had two red-zone targets — there are worse bets to make than him at +500. As long as QB Jacoby Brissett is under center, though, the Patriots' passing game has a low ceiling.
Verdict: DK Metcalf +200 | Sprinkle on KJ Osborn +500
Browns vs. Jaguars
The Browns passing game will typically be a mess with QB Deshaun Watson, but I was intrigued by WR Jerry Jeudy. He caught a touchdown pass in the red zone while facing a batch of man coverage from the Cowboys — he now faces a Jaguars team that played the most man coverage in Week 1. The Jags secondary also got burned heavily by an 80-yard touchdown catch from Tyreek Hill.
Part of me wants to go back to Jeudy, but let’s take a swing on WR Elijah Moore (+400), who played 93% of snaps in Week 1 and had the highest aDOT against man coverage. He also saw one red-zone target against Dallas.
Given the odds discrepancy, I’d prefer Moore than trying to bank on WR Amari Cooper (+175), who only has four touchdowns in the 14 games he's played with Watson.
Much like last year, the Browns played man coverage at a top-six rate in Week 1. If that’s the defense they continue to primarily feature, then you need to bet Jaguars WR Christian Kirk at +220. He crushed it last year against man with the highest yards-per-route-run rate (3.16) and highest target share (29.7%) on the team.
Verdict: Elijah Moore +400 | Christian Kirk +220
49ers vs. Vikings
There’s no way to be certain about betting on a 49ers running back this week with Christian McCaffrey’s status up in the air. If he plays, he’ll likely be on a snap count, but with both he and Jordan Mason’s TD odds nuked for the time being, it might be best to avoid the Niners backfield.
Instead, I’d look at a bounce-back game for TE George Kittle at +200. These are close to the same odds he had in Week 1 (+210) against a way tougher Jets secondary. Kittle has also been much better in his career vs. zone coverage and he led the Niners with four touchdowns last season against zone. The Vikings, under Brian Flores, played zone at a top-10 rate last year with a blitz scheme that matches up well for Kittle.
I know everyone will be touting Vikings QB Sam Darnold in a “revenge” game, but this isn’t the Giants. Darnold should see plenty of pressure from the 49ers that will likely result in a terrible day for his accuracy.
Would I be mad if you bet WR Justin Jefferson at +130? Of course not since he’s nearly matchup proof.
Jordan Addison is out this week, which means more targets for guys like WR Jalen Nailor or WR Brandon Powell. If I had to choose one, I’d opt for Nailor, but have a look at WR Trent Shefield Sr. at +800 for a long shot. Sherfield has the fun accolade of having two revenge game touchdowns (TDs against a former team) in each of the last two seasons (+1500 with the Bills against the Dolphins in 2023, +650 TD with the Dolphins against the 49ers in 2022).
Verdict: George Kittle +200 | Sprinkle on Jalen Nailor +400 & Trent Sherfield +800
Colts vs. Packers
If you just saw the Week 1 highlights, you’d think QB Anthony Richardson finished with 400 yards passing. Instead, he was actually only 9-for-19 throwing the ball.
It looks like we’re back to purgatory with Colts WR Michael Pittman, who still saw eight targets. I wouldn't blame you if you want to bet him at +225, but don’t be shocked if/when the Colts take turns running the ball with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor in the red zone. Richardson looks like he only has one priority in the red zone and that's running the ball, so I'll take the bait at +140.
Here’s the deal: Packers QB Malik Willis has yet to throw a touchdown pass in an NFL game. He has attempted 67 passes with a 52% completion percentage.
We can quibble about the fine print and context of when those passes happened but the point remains that you can’t trust a Packers pass-catcher for the foreseeable future until we see any improvement from Willis. If you want to take him to score at +410, that’s worth a sprinkle — but I’d be shocked if the Packers have more than three trips to the red zone in Week 2.
Verdict: Anthony Richardson +140 | Sprinkle on Malik Willis +410
Giants vs. Commanders
If QB Daniel Jones can’t get at least two passing touchdowns against this Commanders defense, then it's time to boot him out of the NFL. Much like last year, when it gave up the most touchdowns to receivers, Washington had serious trouble stopping the pass in Week 1, allowing four touchdowns to Buccaneers.
The natural logic is to look to bet on rookie WR Malik Nabers, but at +160, I’d rather look down the depth chart and take WR Wan'Dale Robinson. He led the Giants with 12 targets and saw two red-zone targets in the opener. At +300, I’ll take a bite, but if Jones can’t convert some passing touchdowns in this matchup then I may never bet on a Giants touchdown scorer again as long as he's under center.
As expected, QB Jayden Daniels’ ATD odds took a massive downturn after scoring twice in Week 1. I’m still not sure what to make of him as a passer after looking kind of lost in the opener and only attempting one pass in the red zone.
That one target went to rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey, who I like to score at +490. McCaffrey played more than 65% of his snaps in his debut and looked shifty enough to get separation. Facing a Giants defense that let Vikings QB Sam Darnold throw all over them, I’d rather take a swing on McCaffrey than WR Terry McLaurin at +210 or TE Zach Ertz at +450.
I’d be remiss though if I didn’t mention it will be McLaurin’s 29th birthday on Sunday. The last time he played on his birthday was Week 2 in 2019 against the Cowboys, and he finished with five catches and a touchdown. Last week, TE Chig Okonkwo was the lone player to have his birthday land on the day of a gem, and he scored against the Bears at +500.
Verdict: Wan’Dale Robinson +300 | Luke McCaffrey +490
Rams vs. Cardinals
For the Rams, it’s hard to get a read on who the WR2 in this offense will actually be if WR1 Cooper Kupp is going to get 21 targets every week. That clearly isn’t sustainable, and while WR Demarcus Robinson played 92% of snaps, his TD odds have dropped to +220 with the injury to Puka Nacua.
I know Bills tight ends didn’t really do much in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but it’s hard to overlook TE Colby Parkinson at +390. I don’t love it, but he played 89% of snaps and ran a route on 42-of-49 passing snaps.
Cardinals TE Trey McBride might not have had a big return in Week 1 with only five catches, but he jumps off the screen with how he catches the ball. He’s easily Arizona’s biggest receiving threat as WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is still adjusting to NFL defenses.
The Rams played zone at a top-10 rate in Week 1, and that’s when McBride did most of his damage against the Bills with an insane 31% target rate against that coverage. This carries over from last season when McBride saw a 27% target rate against zone.
Verdict: Lean Colby Parkinson +390 | Trey McBride +210
Bengals vs. Chiefs
The heavyweight bout of the week.
I’m not sure you can take much from the Week 1 performance of the Bengals other than QB Joe Burrow still doesn’t look right. He keeps favoring his wrist and his yards-per-completion rate was ugly. If WR Ja’Marr Chase isn’t going to put in a full effort, it’s difficult to trust Bengals TD scorers in this matchup.
That being said, Chase’s highest ATD odds last season were +125 with Burrow at QB, and it's now up to +160 in some spots. It’s chalky and the Chiefs secondary is elite, but we need to grab Chase at this price and hope Burrow keeps feeding him.
For a long shot, you could sprinkle Burrow at +600 to sneak one close to the goal line. I’d personally wait until it gets to +700 or better.
For the Chiefs, you can’t go wrong with WR Rashee Rice at +150. He showed that he's just as explosive as last season and while WR Xavier Worthy had the breakout game, Rice was the team leader in targets (nine) and receiving yards.
Worthy is now down to +160 at some spots, which feels like an overcorrection after being +265 in Week 1.
Verdict: Ja’Marr Chase +160 & sprinkle Joe Burrow +600 | Rashee Rice +150
Steelers vs. Broncos
Of course, the NFL game with a laughable total of 36.5 is where I like multiple TD scorers.
With Justin Fields getting another proper week of practice and preparation for the Steelers, he’ll likely be more comfortable taking off with the ball. He was tentative in Week 1 on the passing front, but had 14 carries for 54 yards.
Fields will typically default to his strength and since the Broncos just came off a game where they gave up two rushing touchdowns, including one to Geno Smith, why not go back to a QB at +225 who's known for running? Last year in Chicago, Fields' average ATD odds were +170, and he averaged double-digit carries in each of the last two seasons.
Speaking of quarterbacks who hold onto the ball too much, QB Bo Nix was certainly a tough watch in Week 1 and it’s not likely going to get easier in Week 2 with the Steelers' pass rush in his face.
Since the total is so low, we’re getting inflated odds for Broncos TD scorers and it’s hard to pass on WR Courtland Sutton (+390), who played 90% of snaps and had two red-zone targets last week. Still, I’d prefer to be a week late than a week too early investing in Broncos TD bets.
Verdict: Justin Fields +225 | Bet lightly on Courtland Sutton +390
