For Sunday afternoon, the only game I’m seeing a real edge on is Vikings vs. Titans. That doesn’t mean I’d recommend betting more than usual on it, just that I’m not showing value on the rest of the slate. I gave out the Colts on Wednesday as part of the "Sunday Six Pack," which you can check out below.
Sunday night, though, I’m on a side. So, I'll be sweating two games throughout the day, starting with a potentially huge mismatch in Music City.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions, Picks, Week 11 Best Bets
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Vikings vs. Titans Prediction
This is a daunting matchup for Will Levis – arguably the NFL’s worst quarterback under pressure – against a Vikings defense ranked No. 1 in pressure rate (29.1%).
Among 38 qualified passers under pressure, Levis ranks bottom-three in YPA (4.4), passer rating (47.0), and pressure-to-sack rate (29.6%), as well as dead last in PFF grade (27.5).
On 71 pressured dropbacks, Levis has taken 21 sacks and tossed three interceptions, giving him the same amount of negative plays as pass completions (24).
Brian Flores’ defense also blitzes at the NFL’s highest clip (38.9%), and Levis is similarly abysmal in such situations, ranking second-to-last in passer rating (47.9) and dead last in PFF grade (28.9).
Levis is coming off his best start of the year (18-of-23, 175 yards, two touchdowns, zero INTs) despite facing a Chargers pass defense ranked fifth in DVOA, but 31st in pressure rate (17.1%) and 23rd in blitz rate (22.0%). The Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA (versus both the pass and run, mind you), No. 1 in pressure rate, No. 1 in blitz rate.
The Chargers bend but don’t break. The Vikings will break Levis.
Sam Darnold has gone full Levis over the past two weeks, tossing 5 interceptions – including three in the end zone and another just outside the red zone – and getting strip-sacked for a scoop-and-score. The Vikings also missed two field goals in the Colts game yet still won both, covered one, and came within 2 points of covering the other.
Save for the impossibly bad turnover luck, the Vikings have been utterly dominant since T.J. Hockenson returned, outgaining the Colts 415-227 and the Jags 402-143.
Meanwhile, since the bye, the Titans gave Joe Flacco his only win of the season, got blown out 34-10 by the Bills and 52-14 by the Lions, needed OT to beat the Pats, and lost by 10 and failed to cover against the Chargers despite Levis throwing 5 incompletions and committing no turnovers. This has all the makings of a get-right spot for the Vikings.
Per our Action Labs data, Levis is 4-11 (27%) ATS in his career, and Week 11 outdoor road favorites -8 or less are 36-17-4 (68%) ATS since 2005, covering by 3.4 points per game.
Bet to: -7
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Sunday Night Football Betting Pick
The metrics indicate this Chargers defense is very good, but a lot of that success has come against Will Levis, Jameis Winston, Spencer Rattler and the Cardinals. I’ll give the Cardinals credit for their success so far this season, but Los Angeles firmly held Kyler Murray in check.
The Chargers have also faced Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew and Justin Fields. So, how good do we think this unit is?
Joe Burrow averaged 2.2 more yards per attempt against zone than man coverage, and Ja’Marr Chase is averaging more than three yards per route run. Well, the Chargers love to sit back in zone coverage.
Also, Burrow is 19-9 against the spread (ATS) in his career as an underdog and 13-5 (72%) as a road ‘dog, covering in that situation by 4.6 points per game. He’s also 13-3 (81%) ATS when he’s on the road and coming off a loss.
The Bengals are desperate here and get a good offensive matchup against the Chargers. I’ll take Cincinnati to close Sunday.
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