Kittle did not have a single catch last week & I’d expect that to change on national TE day. HOU has the Worst 1Q TE DVOA this season, and has allowed 7 different TEs to go over their 1Q lines in the L5 games — Barner 7, Arroyo 35, Kolar 10, Andrews 10, Strange 16, Long 7, Otton 12 Kittle has 9+ 1Q Rec Yds in 9/L11 games. He’s had 2+ targets in 5/L7 1Qs.

I’m expecting IND to throw the ball at a higher rate for a few reasons. • IND is a +3.5 road underdog (T-Largest spread of the season). They’ve only been underdogs of 3+ points one other time this season (+3.5 vs Rams) and JT had 5 catches that game • KC ranks 1st in Pass Rate Over Expectation & coming off their highest PROE of the season (19.4%) • IND ranks 4th in PROE since Week 7. With both teams expected to throw the ball at a high rate + having above avg run defenses, this should lead to a faster pace and more plays ran. Spags and the KC defense have done a great job historically at limiting star RBs like Jonathan Taylor especially in must win games. This is similar to a playoff game for KC as a loss would really hurt their playoff chances. Last year in the Super Bowl they limited Saquon to 2.3 YPC but he was more involved in the pass game (6 catches). Derrick Henry saw more passing game involvement (than avg) earlier this season vs KC (2 catches/3 targets). KC has been a great matchup for RB receptions too. They rank 11th worst in RB Receiving DVOA. KC has allowed the 3rd highest completion% this season (70.6%) and over the L4 games its even higher (76.7% - worst in NFL). JT has caught 30 of his 32 targets (2 drops). And has 2+ catches in every game this season (3+ in 7/10) Danny Dimes faced this Spags defense one time back in 2021 & targetted his RB 6 times (5 catches).