A Wednesday night win would give the Connecticut Sun a season sweep over the Indiana Fever. However, beating the same team four times in a season is no easy feat; just ask New York and Seattle, who both came up short in their quest to sweep Indiana after winning the first three games.
Even with Indiana's success at thwarting the dreaded four-game sweep, I'm surprised the Sun only opened as 1.5-point favorites before being bet up to -3.5. If anything, Connecticut has improved its roster by adding Marina Mabrey to the backcourt via trade.
It's also challenging to get a feel for the over/under, which is now up to 165 after opening at 164.5. Indiana is the league's most profitable team (19-11, 63.3%) for over bettors because of its leaky defense.
Nonetheless, that line movement could provide the impetus we need to unlock some value in the props market. On that note, let's get to my Sun vs. Fever predictions.
Sun vs Fever Prediction
- Sun vs Fever Pick: Caitlin Clark Under 34.5 P+R+A (-122) | Kelsey Mitchell Under 19.5 Points (-114)
With Connecticut still trying to find its rhythm following Mabrey's acquisition from Chicago, we're bypassing the side and total and targeting two player props.
Sun vs Fever Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 165 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 165 -110o / -110u | +144 |
- Sun vs Fever point spread: Sun -3.5 | Fever +3.5
- Sun vs Fever total: Over/under 165 points
- sun vs Fever moneylines: Sun: -178 | Fever +144
Sun vs Fever Preview
Connecticut Sun: Can Sun Continue Win Streak?
Connecticut is on a three-game winning streak and 4-1 since acquiring Mabrey.
Despite a blistering 9-0 start to the season, questions lingered about how good the Sun truly are. In an era where so many teams have adopted much more of a perimeter threat on offense, Connecticut seemed somewhat stuck in the past.
Through nine games, the undefeated Sun were fourth in offensive efficiency and trailed the Liberty by 4.7 points in the rankings. Connecticut's inability to score from the perimeter kept its offensive numbers down, even though it had a league-best 14.3 Net Rating.
During that stretch, the Sun ranked just 11th in 3-point field goals with 5.6 per game.
While it might take a little longer for the Sun to realize the full scope of the qualities Mabrey adds, there's already been a slight change in playing style. Since the Notre Dame product's arrival, Connecticut is playing much faster, averaging 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes compared to 76.97 without her.
Unfortunately, there's been little to no change in Connecticut's perimeter game as it's averaging 5.6 field goals per contest on 31.1% shooting since Mabrey joined the team, compared to 5.5 3-pointers and a 31.4% percentage before the trade.
Indiana Fever: Defensive Struggles
The Fever drew plenty of criticism at the start of the campaign as they got off to a 1-8 start.
However, Indiana couldn't have had a more difficult slate with seven of those nine games against the Liberty, Sun, Aces and Storm. Indiana is 13-8 over its past 21 games and with a 14-16 overall record, it has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.
There are certainly some positive takeaways as the Fever ranks fourth in Offensive Efficiency with a 102.3 rating. The problems tend to be on the defensive end of the court, where Indiana ranks 11th in efficiency (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The Fever sometimes lacks discipline and have a tendency to give away too many cheap fouls. They rank 11th in free throws allowed and converted by the opposition. Indiana also struggles with its perimeter defense, ranking 11th in opponent 3-point attempts and field goals.
Thus, it'll be interesting to see if the Sun can take advantage of that defensive frailty with Mabrey now in the mix.
Sun vs Fever Pick: Fade Clark?
A ton of FanDuel player props caught my eye, so I must admit that it was a bit difficult trying to whittle down my options.
DiJonai Carrington might be Caitlin Clark's kryptonite as Clark is averaging 15.6 points, 3.3 assists and just one rebound in her three games against the Sun.
Clark's points, rebounds and assists prop is set at 34.5, and while she's gone over this number in seven straight home games, I think the opponent warrants a ton of respect.
The Iowa product has yet to exceed this number in three games against Connecticut, and her best result was 25 PRA in the second meeting. This prop is also slightly shaded to the under, priced at -122.
It's well worth a gamble with Carrington possibly giving another excellent defensive effort.
Another contrarian play piquing my interest is to fade Kelsey Mitchell's scoring prop of 19.5 points. While Mitchell has exceeded this number in six of her past seven games, I'm expecting the Sun to offer much more resistance.
Although this projection is more based on her recent form, the quality of the opponent has to account for a bit more. For Indiana to have a chance to pick up its first win against Connecticut, it'll likely require a team effort with Clark spreading the ball around.
Take the under with Mitchell's scoring prop at 19.5.
Sun vs Fever prediction: Caitlin Clark Under 34.5 P+R+A (-122) | Kelsey Mitchell Under 19.5 Points (-114)
Sun vs Fever Betting Trends
- 49% of bets and 76% of the money are on the Fever to cover the spread.
- 50% of bets and 50% of the money are on the over.
SUN:
- Sun are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Sun are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Sun are 7-7 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Sun' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Sun' 15 last games at home
FEVER:
- Fever are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Fever are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Fever are 8-9 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Fever' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 9 of Fever' 13 last games at home
