Sun vs. Liberty Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | +265 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | -350 |
The 3-0 Connecticut Sun travel to Brooklyn on Saturday to face off with the 1-1 New York Liberty.
It's yet another early-season test for this newly formed superteam in the Big Apple, and also yet another potential standout win for the Sun to take in what has been an excellent start to their season.
This line opened up around Liberty -4 and has taken a lot of money — potentially too much money — on the New York side since.
This is an elite Sun defense that gave the Mystics fits, and with player props available at FanDuel, bettors can potentially work with that information.
Connecticut Sun
The two main worries with this team before the season were a new coach and a potential lack of depth.
The former seems to have been answered resoundingly, with Stephanie White already owning a pair of wins over the Washington Mystics, as the Sun sit atop the entire league through the first week.
And through three games, the latter question has remained unasked as well, with this mostly-returning corps clicking on all cylinders with all the pieces intact.
As such, this is a formidable Sun team, one that I have as 1-1.5 points worse than this Liberty team on a neutral court as of right now (the Liberty have more room to grow as they coalesce throughout the season).
So, with an opening line of -4 that moved quickly to 4.5, I was with the books at the start. But the number has been bet out so far that it briefly touched 8.5, which was far too large a number in my view. At 7.5, I still like grabbing the points for this Sun team, but it's more of a lean than a full best bet at this point.
So far this season, the defense has been the calling card for the Sun, holding opponents to just 72 points per game, second-best in the WNBA this season. They've been especially stingy guarding the perimeter, with a 23.3% field goal percentage allowed on 3s. That's going to regress to the mean a bit, but it's definitely not fully coincidental — this is a very strong defensive unit.
New York Liberty
Interestingly enough, it's been the defense that has been the better half of the ball for the Liberty as well. The offense has looked a bit lost at times — well, really just in their opener against the Mystics — but the defense has been the better unit if we're going by the tiny two-game sample so far.
Courtney Vandersloot and Jonquel Jones have both been on a bit of a minutes limit, but given that the Liberty last played nearly a week ago, there's a chance both will be bumped in terms of their minutes played, which would be good news for the Liberty. As of writing, there's no official news on that front.
With several of her teammates on limited minutes (or still overseas, like Marine Johannes), Breanna Stewart went out and scored a franchise-record 45 points in the Liberty's last outing against the Indiana Fever. She most notably went 6-of-9 from deep, and she did it in only three quarters.
As such, it would seem like a fool's errand to then bet against such a talented player, but I think the books have overreacted to that game's weight in their early-season sample. They've set Stewart's point prop at 23.5 — a crazy high number for any player in the W, with their 40-minute games.
Stewart scored just 12 points in her season opener against the Mystics — a much more similar opponent to the Sun than the Fever, who she shredded. Stewart has never averaged more than 21.8 points per game, and those seasons were on Seattle Storm teams without nearly as many weapons as there are in New York.
Add in the fact that she might be getting picked up by one of the best defensive players in the league in Alyssa Thomas, and I love the under for Stewart's points prop on Saturday.
Sun-Liberty Pick
We have the Sun +7.5 as a lean and Stewart under 23.5 points as a bet already.
I'm going to add one more lean (under 164.5 at Caesars) and one more full play (Alyssa Thomas under 17.5 points).
The under should come as no surprise since I've talked about both teams' defensive prowess in this preview, along with the fact that I'm looking toward unders on the points props for each team's best player.
Speaking of which, I have Thomas projected at closer to 15.5. If anything matchup-wise, she's going to have to deal with Stewart's length and a solid Liberty fastbreak defense, which is key because Thomas does so much of her damage in transition.
Leans: Sun +7.5 · Under 164.5
Bets: Breanna Stewart Under 23.5 Points (Best Bet) · Alyssa Thomas Under 17.5 Points
