With the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA still up for grabs, the Washington Mystics will need to defeat the Indiana Fever just to put themselves in position for a potential three-way tiebreaker.
This tiebreaker is only within reach if Washington defeats Indiana at home, Chicago wins on the road against Connecticut and New York beats Atlanta at home.
If there's a three-way tie, the team with the best combined head-to-head record out of the group will be the eighth seed, and the tiebreaker would go to the Mystics, who have a 5-3 record.
Thus, while the Mystics still have a chance to reach the playoffs, it's not exactly a straightforward path. Still, let's get to my Fever vs. Mystics prediction.
Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite against Indiana, and it's as high as -2.5 at BetMGM. The thought here is that perhaps Indiana might rest some of its starters or give them fewer minutes. However, we've yet to see news about any minute restrictions or Fever players appearing on the injury report.
Indiana is the better of the two teams and can still win this game if it's shorthanded. But if there's a minute restriction, we've identified one Fever player most likely to be affected.
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Prediction
Thursday's Fever-Mystics game is loaded with playoff implications, but there's some uncertainty regarding how Indiana will approach the game. In this preview, I'll share how a potential minutes restriction helps to create additional value involving a Fever player in the 3-point props market.
Fever vs. Mystics Pick:Kelsey Mitchell Under 3.5 3-pointers (-135 at bet365)
Fever vs. Mystics Odds
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 168.5 -108o / -112u | +105 |
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 168.5 -108o / -112u | -125 |
Michael Arinze's Fever vs. Mystics Prediction
Indiana Fever: Much More Balance
Indiana has been on another level since returning from the Olympic break. The extended break was probably the best thing that could happen to the Fever's rookie point guard, Caitlin Clark, who went from the NCAA women's basketball national championship to the WNBA Draft and then into the season without much time off.
Clark spoke to reporters after the WNBA All-Star Game about the importance of getting some time away to collect her thoughts.
"I've been playing basketball for a year straight. Just some time to breathe," Clark said. "Get away from everything and really enjoy it because obviously this past year has been super crazy. …It will be good for me to get away from everything and just almost reflect and soak everything in."
Since returning to action, Indiana has hit the ground running, going 9-4, with their only losses coming against the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx and the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces.
While Washington has had its moments this season, it isn't nearly on the same level as Minnesota and Las Vegas.
When you look at the Fever, they have four starters averaging double figures. Indiana is much more of a balanced team, with Clark pulling the strings on offense.
Washington Mystics: Hoping to Overcome Injury Woes
Washington seemed destined to be near the bottom of the standings following the announcement that its two-time MVP, Elena Delle Donne, would sit out the entire year.
Let's not forget that Washington entered the season with the second-lowest win total at 11.5.
Even though Washington already surpassed that projection with 13 victories, the roster had enough quality to get closer to 15 or 16 wins.
Injuries have primarily derailed Washington's season, as only three starters played 30 or more games.
Center Sharika Austin played in only 12 games, and it's a big void to replace her 11.8 points and 6.8 rebounds. Backup forward Aaliyah Edwards was thrust into the starting rotation and did her best to contribute 7.6 points and 5.6 rebounds.
However, with Edwards being a rookie, she still needs some seasoning and was primarily expected to contribute off the bench.
Both players are already ruled out for Thursday's game.
Lastly, the most significant injury woe for the Mystics might've been Brittney Sykes, who has played in just 17 games. Sykes is averaging 12.2 points, and Washington is 8-9 in games that she's played, compared to 5-17 without her.
Fever vs. Mystics: Betting Pick and Prediction
It's tough to pick a side in this matchup without knowing how Indiana will approach the game. Nonetheless, it's difficult to envision a scenario where Indiana's starters play their regular minutes.
We must be careful because Indiana still has enough depth to win the game, especially if the Mystics learn during the game that their three-way tiebreaker scenario is out of reach.
Given those circumstances, the best way to approach this game is to fade one of the Fever's player props.
Indiana's Kelsey Mitchell leads the team with 19.6 points, but her 3-point prop feels inflated at 3.5. Mitchell averages 2.8 3-pointers per game and is coming off six 3-point field goals in a 110-109 home victory over the Dallas Wings.
However, she's gone over 3.5 3-pointers on the road just three times in her last 19 games and only once in her previous seven meetings against Washington.
With Mitchell struggling to make four or more 3-pointers on the road, her chances of going over this prop are likely lower if she plays fewer minutes.
Lastly, she's only had one back-to-back game of four or more 3-pointers in eight tries this season.
This is a sneaky spot where the under in her 3-point prop makes a ton of sense.
Mystics vs. Fever Pick: Kelsey Mitchell under 3.5 3-pointers (-135 at bet365)
