Liberty vs. Fever Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 172 -110/-110 | -285 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 172 -110/-110 | +225 |
The New York Liberty and Indiana Fever face off Thursday night at 7 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime, and the stars will be out: Jonquel Jones, Aliyah Boston, Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and of course, Caitlin Clark.
Clark had moments in her debut (she tallied 20 points and hit four 3s), but overall, she and the Fever struggled, as her 10 turnovers contributed to a 21-point loss to the Connecticut Sun.
Not to do an unnecessary victory lap, but that was to be expected. I bring that up because, due to a variety of factors, I actually am now going to be on the other side of things. That's right folks, we get to bet on Caitlin Clark!
New York Liberty
If you watched last year's Finals, you'll know that back-court defense was arguably the biggest weak spot for the Liberty. It cost them a title last season, and they, mostly (hold that thought), left it unaddressed in the offseason.
They did bring in Kennedy Burke, and she had a strong debut for the Liberty, scoring six points on 3-of-3 shooting. However, she played only eight minutes, leaving A LOT of vulnerable back-court minutes for the Liberty. Now, the Liberty may well start Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (a near miss on the stars listed above) on Clark, but when the Fever have Kelsey Mitchell on the court alongside Clark, it's going to make for tough decisions for New York.
Indiana Fever
As such, I'm actually looking to the plus side of Clark's props tonight! The books seem to have overreacted a bit to her first game, especially in terms of her playmaking. I have her projected around 6.5 assists per game standard, and the books are hanging 4.5 tonight.
She was also able to score 20 points on an off shooting night, in large part because she had an absolutely insane 40% usage rate in game one — that's basically the rate Iowa used her at in college. I don't think that number will sustain, but it does make me reassess my blind fades, and when added to the fact that the books reacted by dropping her points prop by two whole points from where they opened it game one, along with the potentially easier matchup in this game, I like her points Over 20.5.
Books haven't been offering just points + assists, so I will be betting points and assists separate, but will also sprinkle points + assists + rebounds.
Liberty vs. Fever
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oh happy day — we don't have to fade Clark! In fact, best bets are Clark Over 4.5 assists, Over 20.5 points and over 28.5 PRA.
As for the side, I like the Liberty at the number they opened up at (hopefully you tailed in the app @TurveyBets), but the number has since reached around where I think it should be.
Pick: Clark Assists and Points Overs
