Mystics vs. Sun Odds
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 158.5 -110/ -110 | +140 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 158.5 -110/ -110 | -165 |
The Washington Mystics head to Uncasville to take on the Connecticut Sun on ESPN Sunday afternoon.
The Mystics will likely see the return of their top player, Elena Delle Donne, after two games out. The team split those two games, looking completely lost in the first game before bouncing back nicely in a win over the Indiana Fever.
Washington is still without a couple key pieces, however, as Shakira Austin is out, and Natasha Cloud is doubtful.
The Sun have been without Brionna Jones nearly a month now, as their should-be All-Star center is lost for the season to an Achilles injury. DiJonai Carrington is the key name to watch on the injury list for the Sun. Carrington has seen her stats rocket in the absence of Jones, but she missed the last game with an illness.
There are a lot of moving parts to this game, which is why we are still without player props available, but there are still bets to be made and angles to prepare for, so let’s dive right in.
Washington Mystics
For the Mystics, last game played out just as one would have imagined, with Brittney Sykes and Ariel Atkins having monster games in high-usage roles against a very pedestrian defense in Indiana.
Now, likely being able to weave EDD back in, they should be in better shape, theoretically. However, this Sun defense is miles better than the Fever D. I was hoping to get a number around 161 to bet an under, but the books sniffed it out a bit, posting a number in the high 150s.
One potential zag is to look at scoring unders for Sykes and Atkins. The two are coming off their highest-scoring games this season, respectively, and they now have to face the toughest defense in the league and share the rock with EDD.
Sykes, in particular, is fresh off a game in which she: both took and made her highest number of field goals for the season; made her most 3s in any game since 2019; and took as many free throws as any game this season.
If the books overreact and post a number like 16.5, there will be room to zag and go under for her, even though her scoring is definitely higher when Cloud is out.
Connecticut Sun
We talked about how the Mystics may struggle a bit more on offense than their last game, and for the Sun, the story is some of the same.
The Mystics defense was basically created in a lab to slow down the Sun offense.
The Sun rank first in the league by a healthy margin in points off turnovers; the Mystics give up the second-fewest turnovers per game. The Sun lead the league in points in the paint; the Mystics allow the third-fewest points in the paint. The Sun take the second-most two-pointers in general in the league; the Mystics have the third-best defense on twos.
Some of this is just Washington being a good defense, but some of it is a nice alignment to slow down Connecticut. In their three wins without Jones, the Sun are averaging well over 90 points a game.
However, in their two losses against those better defenses in Las Vegas and New York, they barely cleared 80.
Mystics-Sun Pick
As laid out above, I think this game should be low-scoring. And in low-scoring games, it can be a little scary to lay the points, but that’s what I’ll be doing here. The Sun are favored by just three points, and given that they are the home team, this implies that the books see these two teams are equal right now.
This is quite disrespe(CT)ful to the Sun. They have the far superior Net Rating this season, and they are the healthier of the two teams.
I was projecting this number closer to Sun -6.5, and while I would’ve sat out at that number because of the tough defensive matchup for the Sun laid out above, getting over three points away from my projection demands a bet on the Sun at this number. I wouldn’t play it past -4.5, however.
I also lean slightly to the under, although this is almost the inverse. I had projected this number to come out at 161 and was hoping to be able to bet the under. At 159.5, there isn’t much wiggle room. If it gets to 161, I will bet the under, however.
Pick: Sun -3
