The Dallas Wings are on a five-game losing streak and already eliminated from playoff contention at 9-27. Thus, there isn't much to play for other than respect.
However, considering the Wings surrendered 100 or more points in three games during that stretch, the respect angle is probably overrated.
New York was one of those teams that reached the century mark (105-91) against Dallas when these teams last met on Tuesday. They'll play for a second time in three days as New York looks to complete a 4-0 regular season sweep.
Given the Wings' porous defense, which ranks last in allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions, it's not entirely surprising they're 11.5-point underdogs with a total of 178.5 points.
Nonetheless, I'm always a bit leery of backing teams to complete a sweep, regardless of the opponent. I also don't want any part of the under, even at the current number.
So, let's get to my Liberty vs. Wings prediction before the game tips off at 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 178.5 -110/-110 | -700 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 178.5 -110/-110 | +470 |
- Liberty vs. Wings point spread: Liberty -11 | Wings +11
- Liberty vs. Wings over/under: 178.5 total points scored
- Liberty vs. Wings moneylines: Liberty -700 | Fever +470
Liberty vs. Wings Prediction
The Wings will host the Liberty for the second time in three days as a double-digit underdog, with bookmakers bumping the total from 176.5 to 178.5. These odds aren't common in the W for teams that recently played one another.
Instead of considering a side or total, I've spotted a better angle and am backing Arike Ogunbowale in the player props market.
Liberty vs. Wings Pick: Arike Ogunbowale Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-118 at FanDuel)
New York Liberty: New York Should Score at Will
Part of New York's strength this season has been its versatility. While it usually opts for a more controlled game, it's not adverse to getting up and down the court in a shootout.
After all, its 107.2 offensive rating is the highest mark in the league by almost a two-point margin.
When these teams met at the Barclays Center in mid-August, New York was dominant in a 94-74 victory. It was a game played with a ton of pace, accounting for roughly six more possessions than New York's season average (80.24).
The last meeting was more about the Liberty's efficiency than the tempo as New York shot 54.3% from the floor and 55.2% (16-of-29) from beyond the arc.
There are enough holes for New York to exploit in Dallas' defense. The Wings rank second-to-last in transition defense and in points allowed off turnovers, while allowing the third-most points on second-chance opportunities.
While one might expect the Wings to try a different approach by slowing games down, they're committed to an up-tempo style and lead the league in tempo with 81.53 possessions per 40 minutes.
At this point in the season, with only four games remaining, perhaps we're naive to expect any change.
Dallas Wings: Offense Carrying Wings
As bad as the Wings have been defensively, Dallas ranks in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency with a 102.1 rating.
One benefit of the efficiency metric is that it helps to take pace out of the equation by examining a team's performance over its past 100 possessions.
The Wings are also fifth in field goal percentage (44.7%) and two-tenths of a point behind New York, which is in third place.
While Dallas has a decent foundation to build with on offensively, it'll need to improve its perimeter shooting in the upcoming year.
The Wings rank eighth in 3-point field goals (6.2) and trail the top four teams in this category by an average of roughly three per game.
Therefore, Dallas is almost giving a team like New York a nine-point head start before the game even begins.
That's simply too much of a cushion when you already can't stop anyone defensively.
Liberty vs. Wings: Bet This WNBA Player Prop
I'll pass on the side and total and instead focus on a player prop — Ogunbowale's combo prop of over 25.5 points and assists.
Ogunbowale has exceeded this number in seven of her past nine games, averaging just under 30 points and assists. The over has also cashed in seven of her previous 10 games and in 24 of 35 games this season.
More importantly, she's exceeded this number in four of her past six games against the Liberty. Ogunbowale is a proven scorer and slasher who can create shots and score in multiple ways.
If there's one soft spot for New York, it's defending the paint, as it ranks eighth in that category, allowing 35.6 points per game. There's also the thought that New York might be happy to funnel opponents into the paint if it means they're passing up shots on the perimeter.
The Wings' season may already be over, but shooters will shoot regardless.
Ogunbowale can also pick up some easy assists off her drives by finding her front-court teammates because scoring in the paint is something Dallas does exceptionally well, ranking second with 40.4 points per game.
Wings vs. Liberty Pick: Arike Ogunbowale Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-118 at FanDuel)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Wings
| Liberty vs. Wings | Thursday, September 12 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
| Location: | College Park Center, Arlington, Texas |
Liberty vs. Wings is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from College Park Center in Arlington, Texas on Thursday. This WNBA matchup between the league's hottest team, Liberty and Arike Ogunbowale and the Wings is on Prime Video.
