The New York Liberty hit the road for a three-game road trip, beginning with a stop in Phoenix to face the Mercury on Monday night. Tip off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV. This will be the final regular season meeting between the two teams in a series currently tied at one game apiece. Interestingly, the two earlier games closed with a total in the low 170s, yet we have an opening number of 162.5 with decently favorable odds.
New York is coming off a rare loss after a 72-64 setback at home against Connecticut. As for Phoenix, it has a decent chance to climb up the standings, as its next five games are at home. Let's preview the game and my Liberty vs Mercury prediction, featuring my WNBA pick on the over/under for this Monday.
Liberty vs Mercury Prediction
Liberty vs Mercury Pick: Over 166 points
Two potent offenses meet in the desert on Monday night, with the Mercury hosting Liberty. The biggest surprise for this game is the total, which opened at 162.5, roughly nine points lower than in the two previous meetings. However as the night has worn on, the number has risen to 166 with odds at -110.
While New York is known for its defensive quality, a closer look reveals that Phoenix's tendency to play faster at home should offer value on this game going over the total.
Liberty vs Mercury Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
New York Liberty: Trust This Total Trend?
Bookmakers are showing New York plenty of respect because of its defensive quality. The Liberty rank second in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.2 points per 100 possessions.
It's worth noting that the under cashed in New York's last four games. However, it's always important to analyze every game individually, as you can make a case that the under was the right side in each spot.
For example, three of those games featured a total of 170 or more points, and the under is a perfect 5-0 this season when New York has a closing number in that range. The only game with a total below 160 (158.5) was against Connecticut, the only team in the league with a better defensive rating than New York.
Thus, it's possible the bookmakers may be overvaluing this recent run of unders by the Liberty.
Phoenix Mercury: No Place Like Home
Phoenix is one of the few teams in the league that can cause offensive problems for New York. The Mercury ranks in the top-third of offensive efficiency (102.9) and averaged 88.5 points in the two previous meetings.
While we've spent much of our discussion on these teams' offensive and defensive capabilities, we've yet to touch on how tempo can impact the game. Although Phoenix ranks just ninth in pace (80.15 possessions per 40 minutes), it's almost a completely different team when playing at home.
According to the WNBA's Advanced Stats, Phoenix averages roughly two more possessions per game at home (81.38) than it does on the road (79.22). No other team in the league has a more significant discrepancy in its home and away splits in terms of pace than the Phoenix Mercury.
Two extra possessions can make a massive difference in whether a game stays under or exceeds the total.
My Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction
Liberty vs Mercury Best Bet
Phoenix's defense could be particularly vulnerable against a quality offense like New York. When facing the top three offenses (Liberty, Aces and Lynx) at home, the Mercury allowed an average of 92 points per game.
Moreover, when New York visited teams (Mercury, Sparks, Fever and Wings) ranked in the bottom third of the league for defense, the average combined score in those games was 173 points.
Therefore, when you combine the strengths of these offenses with a potentially faster pace and a struggling Mercury defense, this total of 162.5 certainly feels short for a matchup between these two teams.
