After nearly a monthlong hiatus due to the Olympics, the WNBA returns to action on Thursday night with three games, including a matchup between the Sky and Mercury in Chicago.
The long break could undoubtedly be a positive for the Sky as it looks to lock down a spot in the postseason. At 10-14, Chicago is eighth in the playoff race and three games ahead of the ninth-seeded Atlanta Dream.
Moreover, the Sky didn't have a single player compete at the Paris Olympics, while the Mercury had three players (Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Kahleah Copper) who participated.
With that said, let's preview the matchup and get right into my Mercury vs. Sky prediction.
Mercury vs. Sky Prediction
With the Mercury having players coming from Paris due to the Olympics and the Sky trying to navigate through their roster issues, my bet is on the under for this matchup. Two teams with a lot of adjusting to do for different reasons as they may come in a bit rusty after the break.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 +2.5 | 165.5 -110/-110 | -145 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-108 -112 | 165.5 -110/-110 | +120 |
The Chicago Sky will have to make decisions regarding its rotation following a trade that sent Marina Mabrey to the Connecticut Sun in exchange for Moriah Jefferson, Rachel Banham, a 2025 first-round pick and swap rights for a 2026 first-round pick.
There's also some uncertainty regarding the status of the Sky's leading scorer, Chennedy Carter, who tweaked her ankle during a recent scrimmage.
When you couple the international travel for the Mercury's three best players with the potential roster issues for the Sky, the total could offer plenty of intrigue for bettors.
Phoenix Mercury: Can Mercury Withstand Quick Turnaround?
Phoenix's stars logged some heavy mileage during their time in Paris. However, it was a successful trip as the women set an Olympic record by winning an eighth-straight gold medal.
The U.S. also extended its winning streak at the Olympics to 61 games.
That type of pressure likely took a toll on the team at some point as France pushed the U.S. to the end in a nail-biting 67-66 thriller.
Now Phoenix faces a quick turnaround with its players returning to WNBA action after just playing in an Olympic final on Sunday.
It's worth noting that Taurasi didn't play any minutes against France, prompting questions as to whether she picked up an injury.
At 13-12, the Mercury are currently the sixth seed and 5.5 games ahead of Atlanta. Given that this is a veteran Phoenix team, ranking second behind Las Vegas in experience with an average player age of 28.6 years, the goal might be to navigate this second half of the season as best as possible so the roster can be intact heading into the playoffs.
Chicago Sky: Mabrey's Departure Could Impact Sky
The Sky undoubtedly had a completely different experience during the break, considering that none of their players were involved in the Olympics.
However, Chicago rookie Angel Reese did travel to Paris as a spectator to support the U.S. team.
Thus, it's entirely plausible that fatigue could be an issue with players from both teams racking up their frequent flyer miles.
When the season resumes, the Sky roster will look different following Mabrey's departure. Replacing the team's second-leading scorer won't be easy, considering Banham and Jefferson combined to average 6.9 points with the Sun.
While Jefferson averaged double figures in scoring for her last two seasons, she's coming off an ankle injury and will likely be restricted in minutes. She'll also need to ramp up her conditioning after averaging only 6.8 minutes in nine games for Connecticut.
With so many moving parts for the Sky, it might take them a bit longer to establish that cohesion and chemistry, particularly on the offensive end of the floor.
Michael Arinze's Mercury vs. Sky Pick
Mercury vs. Sky: Both Teams Need To Brush Off Rust
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Sky are already the second-worst offensive team in the league, with an efficiency rating of 97.9 points per 100 possessions. Mabrey's absence won't make things any easier on offense, and the team could be in even more trouble if Carter isn't at full strength following her ankle injury.
Chicago ranks dead last in perimeter shooting with just 4.5 3-point field goals per game, and Mabrey (averaged 2.3 3-pointers) accounted for more than half of the team's production.
This is a matchup where we could see both teams showing a bit of rust.
We had an opening total of 166.5; we've already seen that number bet down to 165.5. I agree with the move, and the market has been spot-on this season in Sky games, with an opening total of 166.5 or fewer points.
According to our Action Labs database, the total is 3-0 to the under in this spot when the opening number was bet down.
With some sportsbooks adjusting their juice to the under at -114 odds, we could see another drop in the total.
Therefore, I wouldn't wait too long to pull the trigger with 165.5/-110 still available in the market.
Mercury vs. Sky Pick: Under 165.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)
