Sun vs. Dream Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 168.5 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 168.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
The Connecticut Sun and Atlanta Dream face off in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon on ESPN. The two played Thursday in Connecticut and the Sun won 82-71. Despite that, the Dream have taken early money since the Sun opened as a 3.5-point favorite.
The total has also come down a point, likely in response to the last game going well under.
These teams are both well-positioned for a potential playoff appearance. The Sun are second in the standings and the Dream are fifth, but have won six of their past seven games.
It should be a great matchup for neutral, but who wants to be a neutral when you can add a little extra juice to it with a couple bets?!
Connecticut Sun
On Thursday, the Sun rode a ridiculous third quarter from Natisha Hiedeman (she outscored the Dream 20-18 in the third quarter) and, along with a solid defensive effort, grabbed their 16th win of the season.
That being said, this opening line was a little crazy. The Sun closed as 4.5-point favorites at home Thursday, but opened as 3.5-point favorites in Atlanta Saturday.
Typically, the swap is about 5-6 points when home court is traded, as the Sun and Dream did for these games. That means the Dream would typically be slight favorites if the closing line was to be trusted. Now, the Sun did cover, but books typically trust the market more than a one-game sample, so the opening line was strange to say the least. That likely explains the early money on Atlanta.
Atlanta Dream
With the line now closer to its final resting place (I'd still guess it gets to around pick `em), we can look to the matchup and see if there's an edge to be found.
(Quick process note: This is how I typically approach betting a league like the WNBA, where opening lines can sometimes be pretty far off. I will quickly jump on the opener if it is off from what I make it to be. Then, once the line is settled, I look to the matchup and see if the market is missing anything.)
When looking over the matchup numbers, what jumps out most is that both offenses match up well. The Sun thrive off turnovers, while the Dream turn the ball over at the second-highest rate in the W. The Dream like to clean up the offensive glass and rack up second-chance points, while the Sun — especially without Brionna Jones — allow the third-most second-chance points.
Sun-Dream Pick
As such, I'll be leaning toward the over. However, it's going to be a sprinkle since we just saw a matchup with these two go way under. I think part of that had to do with the Sun's travel situation, but the game still maintained a pace over 80 and if the teams had been able to make any of their shots inside the arc, it would've been a much different total.
We are without player props as of writing, but based on what was available last game, we could have some potential plays.
Tanisha Wright seems to have soured on Cheyenne Parker, preferring Nia Coffey over the All-Star. As such, if the books post lines based on full-season stats, definitely look for Parker unders and Coffey overs.
I've also officially given up on Alyssa Thomas points props, which guarantees she'll go for 40. (Joking aside, I have abandoned that prop because she looks to be wearing down a bit, likely because she's the only driver of offense for the Sun right now.)
Lean: Over 168.5
