The Phoenix Mercury, fresh off clinching a playoff spot, take on a Washington Mystics team that's playing out the string of a disappointing campaign. Washington heads to the desert having won its most recent game, 90-86 over the Dallas Wings, while the Mercury knocked off Atlanta 74-66.
The stage is set, so let's get to my Mystics vs. Mercury prediction.
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
A game between a veteran team that just clinched a playoff spot and one that's not bound for the postseason, but playing well could be very interesting. There's a reason why this spread is as close as it is. Let's look at roster advantages and recent history, and that's where Brittney Griner comes in. The Phoenix center has been terrific on the boards of late, and that's what we're going to bet.
Mystics vs Mercury Pick: Brittney Griner To Record 6+ Rebounds (-245)
Mystics vs. Mercury Odds
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 166 -110/-110 | +195 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 166 -110/-110 | -245 |
Washington Mystics: Washington Playing Well
The win over Dallas was actually Washington's fourth in five games, a late-season push that has also featured road wins over Seattle and Chicago.
Scoring the fourth-fewest amount of points per game, the Mystics are led in that category by Ariel Atkins. The veteran guard is averaging 15.3 points per game while making nearly 35% of her 3-point attempts. Atkins has notched at least 14 points in five of her past six games, the outlier being a two-point performance in the win over the Storm.
With Shakira Austin out of the lineup, the next highest scorer on the team is Brittney Sykes, who is averaging 12.1 points over 11 games. Consistency has been a bit tough to come by, however, with her scoring fewer than 10 points in each of her past three games, but posting totals of 20, 28 and 12 in the three before those.
Center Stefanie Dolson is the final Mystic averaging double figures for points, at 10.3 per game.
As a team, Washington makes nearly 10 3s per game, with their 26.3 attempts from deep being the third-most in the W. They boast the league's second-best percentage from deep, and their reliance on the shot plays a role in why they shoot the fewest number of free throws. The Mystics have also struggled with turnovers, leading the league with 15.2 per game, and their rebound percentage is third-worst.
Phoenix Mercury: Offense Needs to Get Back on Track
Phoenix's playoff-clinching win over Atlanta ended a three-game losing streak, and coming into this one, the Mercury have won just two of their past six games. Even in the wins, offense has been tough to come by, with the team reaching the 80-point mark just once over that span.
That's not to say the team is short on scorers. Kahleah Copper is pacing the squad with 22.2 points per game, while Griner is averaging 18.3 and Diana Taurasi 15.3. Natasha Cloud, who missed the win over Atlanta due to a technical foul-related suspension, averages 11.6 points per game. Copper is coming off of a 28-point outing and has made at least one 3 in five of her past six. At the same time, Griner has collected at least five rebounds in each of her past seven games and in 10 of her past 11.
Cloud leads the Mercury, who have the seventh-best offense in both points scored and rating, with 6.8 assists per game. She has dished out at least four in five of her past six games, with totals of four, six, eight and seven twice. A prolific scorer throughout her career, Taurasi has averaged 4.7 assists per game since the extended break.
Despite having so many high-level scorers, the Mercury play with the league's fourth-slowest pace and rank in the middle of the pack when it coms to 3s made and attempted.
Mystics vs. Mercury: Bet This Brittney Griner Player Prop
Griner has been a force on the boards of late and has nabbed at least six rebounds in five of her past six games.
I expect her to make it six of seven.
Mystics vs Mercury Pick: Brittney Griner To Record 6+ Rebounds (-245)
