It's Week 3 in the W, and it's a fantastic, full, festive Friday slate, with four games and fun for everyone!
With player props now being released for each and every game, we have a cornucopia of picks in today's best bets, ranging from sides to totals to player props. With so many actionable bets, let's get right into it.
WNBA Odds & Picks
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| Matchup | Time |
| Liberty vs. Sky | 6 p.m. ET |
| Wings vs. Mystics | 7 p.m. ET |
| Aces vs. Dream | 8 p.m. ET |
| Sparks vs. Mercury | 10 p.m. ET |
Liberty vs. Sky Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -650 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | +440 |
The first of a home and home double-header this weekend, the Chicago Sky will look to bounce back from their worst performances of the season against the toughest opponent they will have faced so far. As for the Liberty, things seem to be coming together nicely, as they have not lost a game since their season opener to the Mystics.
Despite all the flashy names on offense, it's through their defense that the Liberty have really excelled so far. They are allowing the second-fewest points per game so far, partially due to the second-best field goal percentage defense, but also because of a league slowest pace that has them strangling teams to death. When combined with the fact that the Sky are 3-1 to the under this season and will continue to be without Rebekah Gardner and Isabelle Harrison, and the under is going to be a best bet.
In line with that under–one based in part on pace–I have a few player prop unders: Breanna Stewart under 24.5 points and 10.5 rebounds, along with Courtney Williams under 8.5 rebounds. Betting against arguably the best player in the league always has the distinct possibility of looking dumb, but in a game where I expect fewer points and possessions, combined with the fact that Stewart's points and rebounds are up this season despite joining a superteam and seeing a slight drop in usage, and I'm all over the under. As for Williams, she's an impressive rebounder from the guard position, but this number is well above her career mark, and again I see this being a limited possessions game.
The one over I will be looking towards is Kahleah Copper's points (14.5), where she has seen a large uptick in usage but her points per game have actually dropped. I don't see that sustaining, but I do project that level of usage to maintain, meaning she should be in line for an increase in points per game.
Bets: Under 161.5; Breanna Stewart under 24.5 points and 10.5 rebounds; Courtney Williams under 8.5 rebounds; Kahleah Copper over 14.5 points
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Wings vs. Mystics Odds
| TK Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 166.5 -108 / -112 | +270 |
| TK Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 166.5 -108 / -112 | -355 |
This will be a fun stylistic battle between the high-flying Wings and the grind-it-out Mystics. This was a total I was eyeing when it first came out, because although the Mystics have remained an "under" team this season, I felt that that was due at least in part to some poor shooting luck from three (after shooting 33.8 percent from three last season, the team sits at 27.0 percent this year).
Apparently the market agreed, as the total has risen four points since I gave out this over on the WNBA BUCKETS podcast.
As such, I'll be looking to the player prop market again, targeting two unders on star players (noticing a theme?!). First, I'll be looking at under 24.5 points for Arike Ogunbowale. Arike is amazing and her start to the season has been electric, but this is still a strong Mystics defense and 24.5 points is a wild number for any player to have set as their line in the W (this was part of the thinking on Stewart as well). She went under last game, and I project her closer to 22.5 rest of season than the 25.5 she's been at to start the year.
I'm also looking at Elena Delle Donne under 7.5 rebounds. This is my favorite bet for this game if it remains at plus money as it is now. EDD has cleared this number only one this season, is averaging 6.3 boards per game for the year and hasn't averaged over 7.5 rebounds per game since 2019. I think the thought is that the Wings play at a fast pace and should have lots of rebound opportunities, but even still, this number is too high.
Bet: Arike Ogunbowale under 24.5 points; Elena Delle Donne under 7.5 rebounds
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Aces vs. Dream Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 172.5 -112 / -108 | -900 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 172.5 -112 / -108 | +570 |
This is the most interesting game of the slate in my opinion. The Aces have absolutely steamrolled the rest of the league so far, BUT they have also played an incredibly soft schedule. The Dream, on the other hand, were one of the most disappointing teams in their first three games, but looked far more like the squad we imagined in their last outing against the Sky.
How do the Aces do in their first (mini) test? So the Dream come out with that same defensive energy and focus? This should be an excellent litmus test for both.
Once again, it's into the player prop market that we dive, and this time I at least have a star player over — hooray! I like A'ja Wilson over 7.5 rebounds; Rhyne Howard over 4.5 rebounds; and Chelsea Gray under 7.5 assists — hey they can't all be overs!
For Wilson and Howard, these lines are simply below their season and career averages in a game that has no reason to be expected to be played at a slow pace. For Gray, I do think this Dream team is going to present a greater defensive challenge than the Aces have faced all year (I was also potentially looking at Jackie Young's points under but couldn't quite get there).
Gray has had an awesome start to the season and makes perfect sense as the creator on this superteam, but I project her just a bit lower than this 7.5 total.
Bet: A'ja Wilson over 7.5 rebounds; Rhyne Howard over 4.5 rebounds; Chelsea Gray under 7.5 assists
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Sparks vs. Mercury Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 162.5 -115 / -105 | +138 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 162.5 -115 / -105 | -170 |
Ok, here's my first moneyline bet of the night! Sparks +140 is one of my favorite bets of the evening.
Los Angeles is 1-2 on the season, but this does them a bit of a disservice. Their two losses have come to the Aces, one of which was without several key players who were out with an illness. That bug has cleared the team's system, however, and they are set to rematch the Mercury, who they beat by 23 in the season opener.
I am not much one for believing in "revenge spots," so I am totally fine running with the Sparks again who match up well with Phoenix. The Mercury turn the ball over a lot and the Sparks thrive in transition. L.A.'s defense has always been most sus inside the arc, and for Phoenix, really only Brittney Griner can punish you in the paint.
I also have two of my favorite player props and one lean as well. Moriah Jefferson under 14.5 points and Nneka Ogwumike over 4.5 rebounds are both must plays. Jefferson is averaging 11.7 points per game this season, and while she did score 16 in the season opener against the Sparks, the far bigger sample of her career and last few seasons as a whole, do not suggest that 14.5 is an accurate line to post for her points.
Similar story for Ogwumike, who is far more consistently around 6.5 rebounds per game in her career but is at 4.5 this season because of limited minutes in one game (this is a two-game sample!). Yes, her sister Chiney is in the starting lineup and may slightly bring down her rebounds, but that should be to 5.5 at most, not all the way to 4.5.
Finally, speaking of Chiney, I am taking her under 14.5 points. Her usage has been higher with Sparks players in and out of the lineup this season, but with almost everyone back, I'll be leaning to the under here.
Bets: Moriah Jefferson under 14.5 points; Nneka Ogwumike over 4.5 rebounds; Chiney Ogwumike under 14.5 points
Pick: Sparks ML (+140) |
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