Wednesday features a pair of Round 1 Game 2's as the Indiana Fever face the Connecticut Sun and the Mercury go up against the Minnesota Lynx. Both road teams are on the brink of elimination.
When analyzing the prop market, I like to first understand what's happening with the line movement of the individuals game, to help predict the outcome relative to the current numbers.
There was early action on the Fever at +7.5, with Sun backers coming in at the -5.5. Meanwhile, the total has remained flat. In the later game, the spread has been flat, but the total is starting to drop. I am going into this card looking for ways to back Mercury unders, and any good number in the Sun vs. Fever game.
So, let's get to my best WNBA player prop picks for Wednesday.
WNBA Player Prop Picks
Marina Mabrey Under 3.5 Assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Mabrey's assists under is my strongest prop angle to bet.
She averaged 4.1 assists during the regular season, but her season was a tale of two halves as she was traded from the Chicago Sky to the Connecticut Sun midway through the season. She played 24 games with the Sky, was asked to handle more of a playmaking role on that team, and averaged 4.5 assists. In her 16 games with the Sun, she has been coming off the bench, is playing six fewer minutes per game and is being put in a floor spacing, scoring and shooting role.
Now, we can bet her under 3.5, under her new team average, at only -106 vig with -125 to the over. This should be the other way around.
Mabrey had a huge Game 1 as she scored 27 points, but only had three assists. Look for a similar performance in Game 2.
Natasha Cloud Under 7.5 Assists (+110 BetRivers)
I understand that Cloud absolutely stuffed the stat sheet in Game 1 — dropping 33 points, six rebounds and 10 assists. However, the game script dictated that for the Mercury, who were down 23 points before halftime.
Cloud pushed the pace and found shooters as the Mercury had to play fast and shoot 3s in an effort to come back. They did just that as her teammates were knocking down their shots.
In this game, we have the total dropping and an inflated vig toward the over because of the previous game script. The Lynx have the league's best defense and are a team unit. I expect the closeouts to be strong and this game to go under in many ways.
NaLyssa Smith Under 5.5 Rebounds (-167 BetRivers)
Smith played just nine minutes in Game 1, and this just isn't a great matchup for her. The Fever struggled to score against the Sun, who have a stout defense, and Smith doesn't offer the floor spacing needed to open up room for Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston.
I assume the Fever will rely on players like Lexie Hull to play increased minutes, and keep Smith under 15. This is a simple volume based stat reduction. I also like Under 4.5 rebounds, which is listed at +110 in some places. Perhaps play both and use the reduced line as an escalator/ladder approach. Split one unit 70/30 between the lines.
