On Saturday, we will be given a rematch of last season’s WNBA Finals, as the New York Liberty, who are riding a five-game winning streak, including a recent dismantling of the Sparks by 35 points, will head to Las Vegas for a battle with the A’ja Wilson-led Aces.
There will be plenty of enticing WNBA action, but the clear focus for us, and many avid fans, will be on today's Liberty vs. Aces matchup.
So, which players will we be backing (or fading) on our betting slips today? Read below for my WNBA player props for Saturday, August 17, featuring picks for Breanna Stewart and Kelsey Plum.
WNBA Player Props for Saturday, August 17
- Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 Rebounds (+100, DraftKings)
- Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
Liberty vs Aces Player Prop: Breanna Stewart's Rebounding is Volatile
Volatile barely describes Stewart’s rebounding output in the past 10 games.
Stewart logged 17 rebounds in a single game in that stretch but had just three boards in a bout against the Sparks. Further, she only pulled down four rebounds in three other outings.
During that span, Stewart has averaged just 7.7 rebounds per game and would have gone under this line (8.5) in seven of those games. Stewart’s trend on the glass has not been good.
Now, let’s delve into the matchup, which also could be problematic for Stewart.
The Las Vegas Aces rank third in the WNBA in rebounds per game, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone as to why that is the case.
Wilson averages an astounding 12 rebounds per game, while her frontcourt counterpart, Kiah Stokes, averages 6.0. Even the shorter players hit the glass as guard Jackie Young (6-foot-0) pulls down 4.7 boards nightly.
Stewart will have her hands full on Saturday dealing with Stokes and Wilson, the league’s best player and back-to-back WNBA champion and MVP. She will put up points, but nine rebounds is a big ask for a player who has struggled to find opportunities on the glass recently.
Pick: Breanna Stewart Under 8.5 Rebounds (+100)
Liberty vs Aces Player Prop: Kelsey Plum Hoping to Pick Up Where She Left Off
You can bet your bottom-dollar that Wilson will be the primary focus of this stout Liberty defense which holds opponents to an effective field goal percentage of merely 47.2% (third in the WNBA) and boasts a defensive rating of 95.0 (fourth in the WNBA).
In their first (and only) matchup earlier this season, Wilson finished with 21 points on an efficient 9-for-16 shooting from the field. However, she took four fewer field goal attempts than her season average, scoring six fewer points than her average of 27.2 points per game in the process.
Conversely, Plum had an above-average performance, putting together a 22-point outing the last time these two teams duked it out. Plum had a lot of success offensively in that game, scoring at all three levels.
Excluding the last game before the Olympic break against Chicago, Plum had been on fire, and that would be putting it lightly.
In fact, she had been averaging 22.3 points on an extraordinary 52/48/97 shooting split over her previous seven outings leading up to that game against the Sky.
If Wilson sees many double teams, or weak side defenders over-help on her, expect Plum to be ready to fire from deep or attack overly aggressive closeouts off the dribble. This should be another strong performance from her.
Pick: Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-105)
