After another 1-1 day on Sunday, here's our record heading into Tuesday's WNBA Conference Finals:
- WNBA season: 40-28
- WNBA since August 8: 26-11
- WNBA playoffs: 8-5
Today, we have a likely bounce-back spot for the New York Liberty, and a possible 2-0 lead for the Las Vegas Aces brewing.
That's at least what the "script" would suggest.
Player prop-wise? We're going with three plays for the first time in a little while, so let's hope for a clean sweep, or at least a 2-1 evening, in Day 2 of the conference finals.
WNBA Player Props For Tuesday, Sept. 26
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -104 | 161.5 -113 / -113 | +320 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -118 | 161.5 -113 / -113 | -450 |
Breanna Stewart, Over 22.5 points (-105)
I originally went Sabrina Ionescu over 16.5 points here, which I still might play, but this feels like a classic rebound spot for Stewart.
Stewie has been struggling from the field, a trend that almost certainly has to break very soon — ideally, tonight.
Stewart has shot just 27.7 percent from the field in her last four games and has made just one of her last 23 attempts from three. Neither of those are typos.
Stewart hasn't had a streak like this all season, and in a must-win scenario — staring at a possible 2-0 deficit in the face before going back to Connecticut — I'm betting on the likely MVP to respond by hitting her over, which honestly should have even better value given the cold stretch.
Stewart has gone over once in her last four games. There have only been two instances this season where she's gotten over 22.5 points on 40 percent shooting or less — both times were 23 exactly. But, we're betting on a response, and at least a decent performance.
I'm likely to parlay this with taking the Liberty to cover up to -9.5, and I'll probably throw a few dollars on Stewie to net 25 or more points at around +130.
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Jonquel Jones, Over 9.5 rebounds (-115)
We're riding a hot streak here for this edition of Trap or Trend.
Jones has gotten 10 or more boards in all three playoff games, where she's logged at least 33 minutes in each. My concern: I think this could be a blowout spot for the Liberty as a response to losing on their home floor in Game 1, which happens often regarding the better team in basketball.
That said, I think Jones' work on the glass will be an early reason why the Liberty are able to build a lead, and while I think they can cover the -8.5 line, I don't think this will be a 30-point romp either.
Jones has been and continues to be a terror on the glass since the All-Star break at well over 10 boards per appearance, and I'm expecting a fourth straight tonight as the Liberty tie the series at 1-1.
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 175.5 -113 / -113 | +470 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 175.5 -113 / -113 | -700 |
A'ja Wilson over 8.5 rebounds (-115)
I didn't think Wilson would hit this over last game, and while she went off for 34 points in the Aces' Game 1 win over the Dallas Wings, she accompanied that with eight rebounds. I think this is a spot to play the over in Game 2, especially since we're steering clear of that 10-or-more mark.
Wilson and the Aces should take care of business again, and I think the former MVP will be more active on the glass.
In Game 1, Jackie Young stepped up for 10 rebounds, which has only happened one other time this season.
Wilson has only gotten over 8.5 boards once in her last four games, but the misses were all at eight exactly. She typically doesn't hit too many unders through long stretches, and the Aces haven't been in a close game this month. That's gotta change at some point, right?
