Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | -143 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163o / +130u |
Improving Bournemouth is the favorite in a Premier League game for the first time since Boxing Day when it hosts a Nottingham Forest side that desperately needs more to show for its promising recent performances.
At one point, Bournemouth took 19 points from a seven-match stretch of games in November and December to climb out of the relegation places into a perch of mid-table safety. But the league schedule has featured a step up in class of late, with Thursday’s draw against sixth-place West Ham following defeats away to fifth-place Tottenham and at home to league leaders Liverpool.
Forest has been particularly improved in the attacking phase of play since manager Nuno Espírito Santo took over for Steve Cooper in December. But of late, they’ve failed to earn points despite that improvement, most recently conceding a pair of second-half goals in a 2-1 loss to Arsenal that put earning a valuable draw narrowly out of reach.
Espírito Santo’s debut came in these sides’ previous meeting, a 3-2 Bournemouth win highlighted by Dominic Solanke’s first Premier League hat trick and an early red card to Forest’s Willy Boly.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest prediction and pick.
Bournemouth
There are credible cases to make that Thursday’s draw in London represented both one point gained and two points lost for the Cherries.
After Solanke’s opportunistic strike only seconds into the contest, Bournemouth had several chances to double its advantage. The best probably fell to Antoine Semenyo in the 36th minute, who forced a strong save from the Hammers’ Alphonse Areola.
At the same time, once James Ward-Prowse leveled through a penalty well earned by Mohammed Kudus, Bournemouth did very little with its possessional superiority in the final half-hour, even if it did at times attain promising positions.
For all their improvement since the start of November, it was the kind of performance that highlighted the idea the Cherries may still be too reliant on Solanke for goals.
After Solanke's 13 league tallies, Semenyo has the next-highest total with three. The club signed another striker on deadline day, Turkish international Enes Ünal, though he appears unlikely to be cleared to play by Sunday.
A Premier League team with a striker of Solanke’s caliber really should be posting better numbers than 12 goals in 10-plus home matches.
Nottingham Forest
While Forest may feel it deserved points from its 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal, the return and immediate production of Taiwo Awoniyi has to be encouraging.
The Nigerian played the second 45 minutes and was fit enough to finish off a very well-taken 89th-minute goal that gave the Trees late hope. And his impact on Forest since they earned promotion before the 2022-23 season is undeniable.
In 24 games Awoniyi has started, the Trees have earned an average of 1.33 points per match, a rate that would put them comfortably in the middle of the current table. In 32 games that he’s either missed or played coming off the bench, the rate drops nearly in half to 0.72 points per match.
Of course, availability is also an ability and Awoniyi's has certainly been less than Forest would like. And in better circumstances, that might convince Espírito Santo to try and bring along the Nigerian more slowly. But given his club’s current position and the prospect of a potential points deduction due to charges of violating Financial Fair Play rules — as well as a new injury to Chris Wood — that’s a luxury the Forest manager likely can't entertain.
Anthony Elanga also made his return from injury in the midweek game, and Forest could welcome some but not all of its African Cup of Nations contingent to the squad on the South Coast.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Forest may have allowed Solanke a hat trick, but that came while playing the final three-quarters of a match down a man, and twice coming from a goal down to level the contest. And they present the kind of challenge the high-pressing Cherries have still struggled against at times — of creating the game against a deep-lying, long-ball playing opponent.
So I like the Trees to take at least a point in this spot, even though their overall away form is poor and even though Bournemouth has played some good football.
The numbers say they are roughly Bournemouth’s equal when Awoniyi features, and an equal opponent would be expected to take points much more regularly than the implied probability of a +0.5 handicap wager, which is in the range of +110 to +125 at most books. Since it’s Forest, I’m parlaying it modestly with the total landing under 4.5 goals, given it has yet to earn a result when the total goes over that number this season.
Additionally, given Espírito Santo’s lack of other options, you should also consider betting Awoniyi to score any time at +225 odds and an implied 30.8% probability. He has consistently averaged about 0.63 goals per 90 minutes across his Premier League action. And even though he probably won’t go the distance Sunday, and will be playing away from the City Ground, I think there’s value there.
