Brentford vs Man City Odds
Brentford Odds | +275 |
Man City Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +137) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-175 / +125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here | |
Manchester City will put a bow on their third consecutive title-winning campaign when they visit a Brentford side that could finish as high as seventh with an upset win and help elsewhere.
City clinched the title via Arsenal's loss at Nottingham Forest last Saturday, but this will be the last dress rehearsal before playing back-to-back finals in early June. They'll compete in the FA Cup against Manchester United on the 3rd, and for the UEFA Champions League against Inter Milan on the 10th.
Brentford still have an outside shot at qualifying for European football next season. If the Bees win and Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur both draw or lose, Brentford will secure seventh place and a spot in next year's UEFA Europa Conference League.
The Bees defeated the Cityzens 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium back in early November. It was City's only home league loss of the season, decided by a pair of goals from Ivan Toney, the Brentford striker who is now serving an eight-month ban related to sports betting.
Brentford Reliant on Strong Home Form
So far Toney's loss has been Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa's gain. Mbeumo has three goals and Wissa has two in the two games since news of Toney's ban came down, good for more than a quarter of the duo's total haul of 16 in the Premier League this season.
And the Bees have proven impressively resilient to the ban, earning a 2-0 home win against West Ham and a 3-1 victory at Tottenham Hotspur.
Perhaps that shouldn't be surprising for a club that has proven among the smartest in the EPL since their promotion, and which has already weathered the exit of one key star in now-Manchester United midfielder Christian Eriksen.
To the extent Brentford have made a step forward in their second consecutive top flight season, it's on the back of their home form. Their 22 points taken in 18 Premier League away matches is precisely the same as a season ago, while their 34 earned at home so far is 10 better than the 2021-2022 campaign.
Man City Dealing With Understandable Fatigue
After slaying Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League semifinals and wrapping up the league title, perhaps a dip in form for City was inevitable.
It's also worth noting just the relentless run of games manager Pep Guardiola's men have had to play.
In all competitions, Sunday's Premier League finale will be City's 15th game in 51 days, a stretch in which Brentford have only played nine times.
And while that hasn't really shown up in the results — City have won 11 of 14 in all comps and drawn the other three — there are perhaps signs of wear in the xG numbers.
After they started that run leading opponents in xG in eight of nine games, they've done so only once in the last five.
Brentford vs Man City Pick
As excellent as City are, there is still a decided difference between their home and away performances.
That came into clear focus during the first leg of their UCL semifinal against Real Madrid, when they were fortunate to escape with a 1-1 draw. In the league this season, they've been held to one goal or fewer on their travels on exactly half of their 18 away trips.
Brentford have a mixed defensive record against the rest of the top four, shutting out Manchester United (admittedly before they'd found themselves) while conceding multiple times to Arsenal and Newcastle.
But they were a little unfortunate in the latter two matches, allowing less than 3.0 combined xG. Perhaps this is a spot for a signature defensive effort against a team looking ahead to Wembley and Istanbul.
It won't feel good given how dynamic City can be on attack, but the value here is on playing the City total under 1.5 goals at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability. That is where they have landed in five of eight games this season on the road playing against the top half.
