Fulham vs Wolves Odds
Fulham Odds | +120 |
Wolves Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -135) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-130 / -110) |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Fulham look for their fourth consecutive win across all competitions when they host relegation battlers Wolves in a Friday Premier League fixture.
The Cottagers were expected to be right there with Wolves, battling to avoid the drop at the beginning of the season. Instead, they sit in a lofty sixth-place perch after a 1-0 win at Brighton last weekend. Another win Friday will see them clear the 40-point threshold that generally assures safety.
Wolves have won half of their eight league matches since Julen Lopategui took the reins during the World Cup break to climb out of the relegation zone. Three of those wins came against fellow relegation fighters as well. However, they lost a similar six-pointer 1-0 Saturday at Bournemouth.
These teams played a scoreless draw way back on Matchday 2 in early August.
Fulham Riding High on Stolen Points
Marco Silva's Cottagers have won 11 league matches this season, but few had a more smash-and-grab feel than Saturday's triumph on the South Coast.
With leading scorer Aleksandr Mitrovic hurt, Fulham were second-best throughout while being outshot 21-5 overall and 7-2 in efforts on target.
Yet, they stole three points on Manor Solomon's exceptional finish in the 88th minute, set up by fellow substitute Carlos Vinicius. One or both of those players could start if Mitrovic is unavailable again due to his hamstring issue.
It would be MItrovic's fifth match missed this season for a combination of reasons. Fulham have split the other four, winning two and losing two while scoring five goals and conceding six.
The Cottagers have won 50% of their home matches so far this season, and all three of their losses there have come against the top quarter of the table.
Wolves in Desperate Need of Result
Lopategui has engineered a pair of away league wins already during his time in charge, but it's worth considering the context of both.
Everton — then guided by Frank Lampard — were mired in a 10-match winless run in all competitions when they dropped a 2-1 contest to Wolves at Goodison Park. Southampton are the league's worst home side, and they sank to their seventh home defeat when they lost 2-1 to Wolves at the St. Mary's earlier this month.
More recently, Wolves fell 1-0 last Saturday against a Bournemouth side that was winless in its previous nine games across all competitions.
Lopategui's side have looked more confident than the previous version of Wolves before the World Cup break, but that won't solve the fact they have very few goal-scoring options who have experienced recent success.
Were it not for Ruben Neves and Daniel Podence, the club's only multi-goal scorers, it would be even uglier. While Wolves have underachieved their xG totals overall, Neves and Podences have 10 goals on just 6.7 combined xG this season.
Fulham vs Wolves Pick
The Cottagers are not as heavily favored as you'd expect. It's partly Mitrovic's possible absence and partly xG totals that suggest these teams are of nearly even quality despite their considerable gap in the table.
Of course, xG doesn't tell the entire story. When your record is as consistent as Fulham's in terms of who you beat and who you lose to, it suggests structural reasons this team is outperforming those numbers. That includes the play of a back line that features Americans Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson, as well as goalkeeper Bernd Leno.
That said, fellow relegation strugglers Everton and Bournemouth earned a point each in their travels to Craven Cottage. A Wolves side that might also be happy with one could pose a difficult task for a team that performs better when their foes seek all three.
I'm still backing the home team, but very conservatively. I'm playing a same-game parlay. It combines a Fulham double-chance wager and a total landing under 3.5 at -130 odds and an implied 56.5% probability.
That bet has cashed on 15-of-23 occasions (about 65% of the time) between Fulham home games and Wolves away matches.
Additionally, Fulham haven't lost at home to a team beneath them in the table, and they've scored only five times in four games without Mitrovic. Wolves have zero away wins against teams above them in the league and haven't played an away match where the total has exceeded three all season.
