Luton Town vs Liverpool Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +1100 |
| Liverpool Odds | -450 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -102 / -109 |
Liverpool will try to keep pace atop the Premier League table when they visit a Luton Town side rightly focused on simple survival in their first top-flight season in three decades.
The Reds began the weekend in fourth in the table and only three points back of leaders Tottenham. And Liverpool fans would tell you they should be even with Spurs, with the difference a controversial 2-1 Tottenham home win over the Reds decided by a Liverpool goal wrongly disallowed for offside.
Luton begin the weekend in the relegation places, in 18th and a point behind Bournemouth. But they've at least shown an ability to take points off the teams in that part of the table, defeating Everton and drawing Nottingham Forest and Wolves so far.
This is the sides' first meeting in more than 30 years, since Liverpool won a 2-1 league meeting at home in January of 1992. Let's get into my Luton Town vs Liverpool prediction.
Luton Town
On the surface, Luton's early Premier League CV looks similar to fellow newly promoted sides Burnley and Sheffield United. But on closer inspection, maybe there's a little more to like, particularly when they're playing at Kenilworth Road..
The Hatters have been in touching distance in every home game they've played, including a 1-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur that marked the only time this season a league opponent has kept a clean sheet on a visit to Luton. And their expected goals difference of +1.0 at Kenilworth Road is good for 12th in the Premier League.
They are also coming off a full week to prepare following a 3-1 loss last Sunday at Aston Villa, afforded the time by crashing out of the League Cup in the third round, 1-0 away to Exeter City.
Liverpool
With only one defeat all season — in a match the Premier League has admitted was decided by an incorrect decision — Liverpool have appeared to put last season's disappointing fifth-place finish behind them.
But there's two vulnerabilities that seem evident.
The first is defensive, where the Reds have conceded in every single one of their away fixtures, including at Wolves and at Bournemouth.
And the second is a matter of strength of schedule. A 3-0 home victory over Aston Villa represents the strongest win for Jurgen Klopp's men this season. The loss to Spurs may be disputed, but it still counts. And Jurgen Klopp's men have yet to face Arsenal or Manchester City, the other teams who began the weekend above them.
The Reds have also had as busy a schedule as anyone, managing their UEFA Europa League commitments and a run to the Leagues Cup quarterfinals following a 2-1 win at Bournemouth on Wednesday. But it has helped that their continental opponents have been conciliatory, allowing Liverpool to ease to three wins from three while employing a considerable squad rotation.
For Sunday, attacker Luis Diaz remains questionable, with Klopp allowing him to determine his own availability as he deals with the recent kidnapping of his father in Colombia. Midfielder Curtis Jones was not in training for Liverpool on Saturday.
Luton Town vs Liverpool
Prediction
The track record suggests Liverpool are due to keep a clean sheet on their travels sooner than later, having been unlucky not to in wins at LASK and Wolves.
But keeping clean sheets on the road is a habit you develop with repetition. And Luton are better going forward at home than their position in the table lets on.
So, I'm keeping it relatively simple here, playing yes on both teams to score at -125 odds and an implied 55.6% probability. That bet has cashed in every Liverpool away game in all competitions this season, and all but one of Luton's home slate.
If you're going to be more exotic, tie it to a total under 4.5 goals, which will bring your odds up to the +180 range and has also cashed on all but two occasions within the same splits.
