One of the things that makes betting games like Wednesday's massive clash between Man City and Arsenal so intriguing is there not much of a track record to consider.
City and Arsenal have been the two clear title contenders since the Premier League broke for the World Cup last fall. Neither team has played all that many league games where the balance of power and talent between the sides is relatively even. As we look for three prop bets for the biggest league clash of the season, keep in mind this is a bit more art than science.
We will look to a specific sample of matches to help inform our plays here: Arsenal's seven away games against teams currently in the top half and City's eight home games.
What both of those sets of matches suggest is that this could be a game that grows increasingly open and chaotic as time goes on – a possibility oddsmakers are not completely accounting for.
Here's how I'm taking that conclusion and playing my wagers on Wednesday.
Man City vs Arsenal Odds & Picks
Both Teams to Score and Over 3.5 – Single Game Parlay (+175 via BetMGM)
In the modern EPL, the highest-leverage games often become more high scoring than the average league fixture. We've certainly seen that bear out between these sides this season.
Among the 15 games I mentioned we are looking at with the top half in the relevant home/away splits, the above single-game parlay has cashed nine times in total. And that's only slightly more than what the expected goals (xG) totals would suggest. City are averaging 2.3 xG for and 0.8 xG against in those matches, while Arsenal are averaging 2.1 xG and 1.4 xGA.
To sweeten it further, this match also cashed in these teams' previous league meeting, a 3-1 City win at Arsenal. At a price that implies only a 36.4% implied probability, this is a pretty clear play worth making.
Second Half Over 2.5 (+260 via Caesars)
Another trend we've seen in this sample is games that occasionally can come unhinged in the latter stages – for lack of a better description. It makes intuitive sense if you consider how much harder it is to contain the exceptional attacking talent both sides have at their disposal for a full 90 minutes than for the first 45.
These teams have played games where three or more second-half goals are scored six out of 15 times between City's home matches and Arsenal's away fixtures against top-half opponents.
If you can find a second half total to play over 2.0 goals, you might also consider that. But at a price that implies a 27% probability, I think the aggressive play is worth a shot.
Erling Haaland to score 2 or more goals (+290 via FanDuel)
Haaland has played six home matches against top-half opponents. He's scored multiple goals in two of them, one goal in two of them and none in two.
His xG totals suggest this is a little fortunate, but not extremely so. His overall xG per 90 average in those games is only 0.7, but the median value is 1.0, posting more than 1 xG in three of those contests.
Those ratios more or less mirror his overall goal production patterns this season. Against all league opponents, Haaland has scored two or more goals in six of 15 home fixtures.
At a 25.6% implied probability, this is a price worth taking a chance on for a striker who simply hasn't slowed down this season.
