Man City vs Leeds United Odds
Man City Odds | -625 |
Leeds United Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +750 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-114/ -109) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-103/ 129) |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City looks to take another step toward their third consecutive Premier League title when they host a Leeds United side fighting to avoid relegation on Saturday.
City have won four in a row in all competitions — and an incredible nine straight in the league — to climb above Arsenal by a point, and with an extra game in hand entering the weekend.
With newly appointed manager Sam Allardyce, Leeds will travel to their northern neighbors clinging to Premier League safety by a one-point margin after earning just one point in their last four league matches.
City earned a 3-1 victory over Leeds in their previous meeting in December. It was a game that wasn't as close in terms of chances created as the final score represented.
Man City
The inevitable sky-blue machine so many have been expecting to emerge this season has finally surfaced.
During their perfect nine-game league run, City has posted an average expected goal difference (xGD) of 1.63 per 90 minutes, reflecting an improvement in quality as well as results from their season average of +1.33 xGD per match.
Can they maintain that kind of incredible excellence? History suggests it's possible.
Last year's championship City squad actually exceeded that figure over an entire league campaign, posting a +1.68 xGD, and the 2018-2019 EPL-winning City team posted a +1.57 xGD en route to the title. And in both cases, those teams actually exceeded their expected goal difference over the course of the season by about 10 goals.
If there's any reason for concern on Saturday, it might be the schedule. This will be the third match of four in the space of 10 days, and it took some time to find a breakthrough in Wednesday's 3-0 home win over West Ham. The fourth match is a huge one: Tuesday's first leg of the Cityzens' UEFA Champions League semifinal against Real Madrid.
Attacking midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is questionable after he missed the last two games following an exceptional performance in a 4-1 win over Arsenal.
Leeds United
Allardyce will debut as Leeds' third manager of the season on Saturday after the club parted with Javi Gracia following a 4-1 loss at Bournemouth on Sunday.
The 68-year-old Englishman has an established reputation as a relegation escape specialist over the years. But his previously perfect record in such battles was finally tarnished in his last role, when he couldn't prevent West Bromwich Albion from escaping the drop in the 2020-2021 Premier League season.
Gracia had posted a 3-5-2 league record (W-L-D) in his tenure of just over two months as the replacement for American manager Jesse Marsch. But his debut — a 1-0 win over Southampton in late February — was the only clean sheet posted by his club over that time. Since then, Leeds have conceded four or more goals on four separate occasions.
All of those have come since losing American defensive midfielder Tyler Adams to hamstring surgery in late March. He seems likely lost for the season, though there has been no official timetable given for his return.
Man City vs Leeds United Pick
These types of games with such an overwhelming favorite are never comfortable to bet — and the addition of Allardyce brings a bit of unpredictability.
But I'm not sure how much of a new coaching bump we should expect — if any — when the move so obviously suggests desperation and feels so antithetical to who Leeds have tried to be over the last few seasons.
Thus, I'm OK backing a comfortable Manchester City victory here on a handicap wager of +2.5 goals at +117 odds and an implied 46.1% probability.
If the circumstances make this wager feel like a trap, I'm there with you.
But let's look at the facts. A bet on City +2.5 goals has cashed in five of seven previous home games against the current bottom eight in the table. Since losing Adams, Leeds have lost by at least three in half of their last eight games against all competitors.
Also, if City score a couple of early goals, consider playing a live bet under a total of 4.5 or 5.5 depending on the odds. Or you could also probably hedge against your handicap to lock in some profit.
Manager Pep Guardiola is likely to have his side take a foot off the gas at least somewhat with that kind of early advantage and Real Madrid looming on Tuesday.
