Athletics vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - May 28, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Brown’s posted a career-high 30.6% K rate through 10 starts, but my expected K model has him closer to 26% — right in line with his career rate. A big reason for the spike? His called strike rate is way up — a stat that’s tough to sustain and typically regresses. That regression could come tonight against an A’s team that swings at pitches in the zone at the 2nd-highest rate in MLB. Brown has reverse splits, striking out LHBs at a 2% higher rate in his career. With only three lefties in the A’s lineup, that lowers his overall K upside. He leans on a 4-seam/sinker combo for 58% of his pitches, and while his changeup/knuckle curve could give the A’s trouble, they should make enough early contact (especially against his fastball mix) to prevent two strike counts from piling up. The A’s rank 12th in whiff rate vs. four-seamers and 2nd-lowest vs. sinkers — a key reason why. I’m projecting Brown to get pulled around the 5th or 6th hitter the third time through — and those top 5-6 bats have much lower expected K rates than the bottom three. Projecting this closer to -145 to stay under 6.5 Ks.

Astros get Hunter Brown on the bump – 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP across 10 starts. Bounce-back spot after rare bad outing. Astros 7-1 last 8 vs A’s at Daikin after a win. Houston 9-2 on run line vs AL West teams under .500. Oakland just 1 win in last 10. Bad spot. JP Sears? Brutal May – 0-2, 5.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Last 2 starts: 10 ER, 5 HR allowed. Astros top 10 in home scoring – should feast. A’s bullpen no help – team ERA ranks 28th, WHIP 28th or worse. Houston likely builds early lead and runs away late. A’s failed to cover in last 5 night games vs AL teams. Astros pitching staff ranks 8th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP – bullpen can lock it down. Sears gave up 4 HRs last start. Astros should cash early and cover late. Not just a win – expect a clean -1.5 cover.

I adore Hunter Brown and am expecting his dominant start to continue -- this is just a bad matchup. The A's active roster has just an 18.0% strikeout rate against righties this year. That pushes my projection on Brown down to 5.75 strikeouts.