Braves vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024

Braves at Phillies

10:40 pm • NBCS-PH

Atlanta Braves

0-2

4 - 5

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Sanchez			3.32	11-9
C.Morton			4.19	8-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	+1.5-157	o8.5-109	+140
Phillies 1-3	-1.5+131	u8.5-108	-165

Thursday 10:40 p.m.

August 29, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases+115

B.Marsh o0.5 Hits-101

N.Castellanos o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-130

0.77u

R.Laureano o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+105

C.Morton u17.5 Outs-104

Under in 13/24 starts, including 7/11 on the road (4.62 ERA). Pitching on 4 days rest for just the 4th time this season (third time in L4 starts) - could see a slightly shorter leash. Gets the Phillies who haven’t been hitting well, but do have a ton of familiarity against Morton - and get some solid hitting conditions tonight at CBP.

B.Harper o1.5 Total Bases+150

0.25u

B.Harper o0.5 RBI+190

0.2u

Near 15% edge based on Action Pro projections

B.Harper o0.5 HR+550

0.05u

🚨 NOTE: 🚨 : Return of football and Green Dot Daily has led to me taking a backseat on Payoff Pitch. Because of this, I’ll be halving all my plays from here on out, starting today (right before DET first pitch, changes were made). Still trying to find you guys big edges through the pro report / research but have clearly lost a step on baseball and want to focus more on CFB & NFL in coming weeks

PHI -160

0.63u

Featured Insight
Braves have won 60% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- third best in MLB. Phillies have won just 43% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Phillies have won 57% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- fourth best in MLB. Braves have won just 40% of their games that have been decided by one run or less since last season -- third worst in MLB.

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The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .416.

56% of Trea Turner fastball strikeouts are located away since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. 59% of Charlie Morton fastball strikeouts are located away since the 2022 season -- fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (272/456) against Cristopher Sanchez this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has allowed an OBP of .351 (749 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 -- fourth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (184/482) when he's behind in the count this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CB; League Avg: 9% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 28th	HOU	L 0-10	+1.5 L	U 10	HOU +102
Aug 27th	HOU	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 9	PHI -138
Aug 26th	HOU	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -198
Aug 25th	@KC	W 11-3	+1.5 W	O 10.5	PHI +120
Aug 24th	@KC	W 11-2	-1.5 W	O 9.5	PHI -115

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	105	5.2	7	3
LA.Bummer, P	8	0.2	0	1
RG.Holmes, P	24	1.2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Merrifield, 2B	0-5	1	0	0
2J.Soler, RF	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Kelenic, LF	0-0	0	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	2	2	3
5T.d'Arnaud, C	0-3	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5S.Murphy, C	0-0	0	0	0
6R.Laureano, LF	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Laureano, RF	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Harris, CF	1-4	1	0	0
8O.Arcia, SS	1-3	0	0	1
9L.Williams, 3B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sanchez, P	105	5.2	8	2
RO.Kerkering, P	16	1.1	2	0
LM.Strahm, P	20	1	2	0
RJ.Hoffman, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-3	1	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
4A.Bohm, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
4E.Sosa, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5N.Castellanos, RF	2-4	2	1	2
6B.Stott, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
7J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	0	0
8B.Marsh, CF	2-4	1	1	3
8B.Marsh, LF	2-4	1	1	3
9A.Hays, LF	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	0-0	0	0	0