Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 6, 2024

Brewers at Dodgers

11:15 pm • FOX

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

3 - 5

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Paxton			4.09	1-1
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	-1.5+150	o9+100	-108
Dodgers 11-5	+1.5-178	u9-120	-112

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

July 06, 2024

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

LAD -110

0.91u

J.Paxton u4.5 Ks-118

1.02u

LAD -113

F.Freeman o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-130

MIL -105

$1750.00

J.Paxton u4.5 Ks-115

0.87u

MIL -110 (F5)

1.1u

F.Peralta u17.5 Outs+150

1.5u

Trying this again - +150 is a great spot to take a stab at the under. Peralta under in 10/17, including 9/L13. The Dodgers are an ideal opponent for the under - of course they are capable of hitting (.736 OPS / 119 sOPS+ vs power pitchers), but they also see a lot of pitches. 3.96 per PA is third highest, with the third lowest chase rate. Peralta is at 4.18 per PA (4th highest), a 61.5% strike% (13th lowest), and a 48.2% zone% (129th of 147 pitchers with at least 50+ IP). Would play down to +120.

Under 8.5-109

Featured Insight
The Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB (7 games). The Dodgers have allowed 4.8 runs per game in the first five innings over the last week -- highest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
The Dodgers have answered-back in 36% of innings after an opponent scores this season -- tied for third highest in MLB. Brewers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score this season -- second highest in MLB.

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The Dodgers are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in 30% of PA's since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Trevor Megill has a strikeout rate of 32% since last season -- 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in 29% of PA's since the 2022 season -- tied for third highest in MLB-- third Percentile. Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 30% since the 2022 season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 36 of 279 right-handed batters (13%) this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% -- first Percentile.

James Paxton has an average spin rate of 1921.2 RPM on curveballs since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 2526.8 -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 6th	MIL	W 8-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	LAD -216
Jul 5th	ARI	L 3-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	ARI -113
Jul 4th	ARI	L 4-12	-1.5 L	O 9	ARI -205
Jul 3rd	ARI	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9	LAD -187
Jun 30th	@SF	L 4-10	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SF -115

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	104	4	4	3
RB.Wilson, P	48	3	1	0
LB.Hudson, P	9	0.1	0	2
LR.Zastryzny, P	14	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chourio, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-2	1	0	0
3C.Yelich, LF	1-4	1	1	1
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	1
5S.Frelick, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	1-3	1	1	1
7B.Perkins, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8A.Monasterio, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	83	5	3	2
RD.Hudson, P	13	1	1	0
RB.Treinen, P	11	1	1	0
RE.Phillips, P	19	1	1	1
LA.Vesia, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Ohtani, DH	2-2	2	1	1
2W.Smith, C	1-5	1	1	2
3F.Freeman, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
4T.Hernandez, LF	1-5	0	0	0
5A.Pages, RF	0-4	0	0	1
6J.Outman, CF	2-4	0	0	0
7M.Rojas, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8G.Lux, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Vargas, PH	1-1	1	1	1
8K.Hernandez, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9C.Taylor, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9C.Taylor, 2B	0-4	0	0	0