Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - May 11, 2024

Diamondbacks at Orioles

8:05 pm • MASN2

Arizona Diamondbacks

2-3

4 - 5

Baltimore Orioles

2-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Means			2.61	2-0
R.Nelson			4.24	10-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 2-3	+1.5-155	o9-108	+130
Orioles 2-3	-1.5+130	u9-112	-155

Saturday 8:05 p.m.

May 11, 2024

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

BAL -160

$1.00

ARI +130 (F5)

1.3u

Over 8.5+100

Under 9-120

0.6u

Bet to 8.5 (-102)

ARI +145

0.5u

ARI +140 (F5)

0.7u

Over 8.5+100

0.5u

ARI +150

0.67u

ARI +155

0.5u

Bet to +139

ARI +145 (F5)

0.73u

Bet to +130

ARI +152

ARI +145

Nelson has strong pitch moedling metrics and estimators similar to projections for Means. BAL 102 wRC+ v RHP, ARI 145 (16.9 K%) v LHP - Similar defenses, but BAL pen edge, a risk I'm willing to take for a better price than F5.

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Featured Insight
The Orioles have scored 5.2 runs per game on the road this season -- fifth highest in MLB (17 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 5.2 runs per game at home this season -- fifth highest in MLB (19 games).

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The Diamondbacks are just 83-9 (.902) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.

Eugenio Suarez has struck out in 30% of PA's since last season -- sixth highest in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Craig Kimbrel has a strikeout rate of 34% since last season -- tied for 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 32% (112 SO in 354 PAs) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- second Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .513 (331 Total Bases / 645 ABs) since last season -- tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .417 -- sixth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	1-4	1-4	N/A	1-3	0-1
Diamondbacks	4-1	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	2-3	2-3	N/A	1-3	1-0
Diamondbacks	4-1	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	2-3	2-3	N/A	2-2	0-1
Diamondbacks	2-3	2-0	0-3	1-0	0-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 10th	ARI	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	BAL -135
May 8th	@WSH	W 7-6	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -167
May 7th	@WSH	L 0-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	WSH -218
May 5th	@CIN	W 11-1	+1.5 W	O 9	BAL +110
May 4th	@CIN	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 9	BAL +102

Heston Kjerstad
LF
Kjerstad is out with hamstring
Out
Jordan Westburg
3B
Westburg is out with elbow
Out
Jackson Holliday
2B
Holliday is out with hand
Out

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Lourdes Gurriel
LF
Gurriel is out with knee
Out
Merrill Kelly
SP
Kelly is out with back
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful
Adrian Del Castillo
C
Del Castillo is out with calf
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Nelson, P	87	4.2	3	3
RR.Thompson, P	13	1.1	1	0
LJ.Mantiply, P	9	1	0	0
RK.Ginkel, P	9	1	0	1
RP.Sewald, P	26	1	1	0
RB.Jarvis, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Marte, DH	1-4	1	1	2
2C.Carroll, CF	0-4	0	0	1
3L.Gurriel, LF	2-5	0	0	1
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5R.Grichuk, RF	1-3	0	0	0
5J.Pederson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5J.McCarthy, RF	0-1	0	0	0
6E.Suarez, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7G.Moreno, C	0-4	0	0	0
8B.Alexander, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
9K.Newman, SS	2-4	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Means, P	89	4.2	3	4
RM.Baumann, P	22	2.1	0	0
LK.Akin, P	17	1	1	0
RY.Cano, P	19	1	0	0
LD.Coulombe, P	15	1	1	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Henderson, SS	2-4	1	1	1
2A.Rutschman, C	0-5	0	0	0
2R.McKenna, PR	0-0	0	0	0
2J.McCann, C	0-0	0	0	0
3R.O'Hearn, DH	1-4	0	0	1
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	3-5	1	0	0
5A.Santander, RF	1-4	1	1	1
6C.Cowser, CF	1-5	1	0	0
6C.Cowser, LF	1-5	1	0	0
7J.Westburg, 3B	4-5	0	0	2
8H.Kjerstad, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Mullins, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Mateo, 2B	1-4	1	0	0