Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - August 19, 2023

Diamondbacks at Padres

1:40 am • SDPA

Arizona Diamondbacks

3-3

0 - 4

San Diego Padres

2-4

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Lugo			3.57	8-7
B.Pfaadt			5.72	3-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Padres 2-4	N/A	N/A	N/A

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

August 19, 2023

Petco ParkSan Diego

F.Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases-125

$1.00

Under 9-110

0.5u

Bet to -123 or 8.5 (-103)

ARI +158

0.5u

Bet to +155

ARI +154

0.5u

Pfaadt 3.84 SIERA/.277 xwOBA L30 days, Lugo 3.83/..322 season & not far off those L30 days either - ARI 2 pt wRC+ edge v RHP - comparable defenses - SD pen estimatosrs nearly 1/2 run better L30 days, but that's really their only significant edge here.

Featured Insight
Diamondbacks hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 39% this season -- tied for ninth-worst in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the Padres this season -- best in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.5 runs per game in late innings since last season -- second-highest in MLB (283 games). The Padres have allowed 1.4 runs per game in late innings since last season -- 10th-highest in MLB (284 games).

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The Padres are just 48-27 (.640) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Diamondbacks are just 13-18 (.419) after a home loss this season -- tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

Ketel Marte is slugging .596 on breaking pitches this season -- sixth best in MLB-- 96th Percentile. Scott Barlow has thrown a breaking pitch 71% of the time this season -- third highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Tommy Pham is batting just .192 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time since last season -- sixth highest among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB-- 96th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	3-3	3-3	N/A	3-1	0-2
Diamondbacks	5-1	3-0	2-1	1-0	3-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	2-3-1	2-3-1	N/A	0-3-1	2-0
Diamondbacks	4-2	2-1	2-1	1-0	2-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	2-4	2-4	N/A	2-2	0-2
Diamondbacks	3-3	3-0	0-3	1-0	1-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 18th	ARI	L 1-3	-	-	-
Aug 17th	BAL	W 5-2	-	-	-
Aug 16th	BAL	W 10-3	-	-	-
Aug 15th	BAL	L 1-4	-	-	-
Aug 13th	@ARI	L 4-5	-	-	-

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Lourdes Gurriel
LF
Gurriel is out with knee
Out
Merrill Kelly
SP
Kelly is out with back
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful
Adrian Del Castillo
C
Del Castillo is out with calf
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out with elbow
Out
Griffin Canning
SP
Canning is out with achilles
Out
Matt Waldron
SP
Waldron is out with lower body
Out
Will Wagner
3B
Wagner is out with oblique
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Pfaadt, P	107	7	5	0
RM.Castro, P	8	0.1	0	4
LJ.Mantiply, P	14	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, RF	0-4	0	0	0
2K.Marte, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
3T.Pham, LF	1-4	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5L.Gurriel, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6J. Peterson, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6B.Kennedy, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7A.Thomas, CF	1-3	0	0	0
7K. Lewis, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8G.Moreno, C	2-3	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RS.Lugo, P	104	6	9
RS.Barlow, P	8	1	0
RR.Suarez, P	9	1	1
LJ.Hader, P	11	1	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1H.Kim, 3B	1-4	1	0	2
2F.Tatis, RF	1-4	1	1	2
3J.Soto, LF	1-4	0	0	0
4M.Machado, DH	0-1	0	0	0
5X.Bogaerts, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Sanchez, C	0-2	0	0	0
7J.Azocar, PR	0-0	1	0	0
7L.Campusano, C	0-0	0	0	0
8G.Cooper, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
8B.Gamel, PH	1-1	1	0	0
8M.Carpenter, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	0-2	0	0	0