Dodgers vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - April 9, 2024

Dodgers at Twins

11:40 pm • SportsNet LA

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

6 - 3

Minnesota Twins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Varland			7.61	0-6
T.Glasnow			3.49	9-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5-114	o8-115	-188
Twins 0-0	+1.5-106	u8-105	+157

Tuesday 11:40 p.m.

April 09, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

MIN +160

0.3u

T.Glasnow o7.5 Ks-140

1.04u

M.Betts o0.5 HR+400

0.5u

@AnthonyDabbundo

MIN +160

... non div dog sp k rate >16% Overall: 462-556-1,45% (ROI:16%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%)

LAD o4.5 Team Total-124

$50.00

MIN +158

0.7u

Have the Twins at 43.1%, up from 38.8% implied at this number. Have Louie Varland projected as a slightly below average starter due to the amount of hard contact he allows and am still showing value. Dodgers are great -- just don't think the Twins are slouches to the point where they should be +158 at home.

Featured Insight
Dodgers have won 63% of their games on the road since the 2022 season -- second best in MLB. Twins have won just 45% of their games on the road since the 2022 season -- eighth worst.

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Featured Insight
The Twins scored 3.0 runs per game while leading last season -- ninth highest in MLB (117 games). The Dodgers allowed 3.0 runs per game while trailing last season -- ninth highest in MLB (98 games).

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Mookie Betts slugged .574 on breaking pitches last season -- fifth best in MLB-- 96th Percentile. Griffin Jax threw his slider 53% of the time last season -- 14th highest among qualified RPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Carlos Santana has an OPS of just .714 since the 2022 season -- 13th worst in MLB-- 12th Percentile. Tyler Glasnow has allowed an OPS of just .597 (577 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth best among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 19% (37/194) versus Louie Varland in the 2023 season -- 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% -- 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 62% (10/16) against Tyler Glasnow with runners in scoring position this season -- highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

Louie Varland threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 73% (151/206) of opposing batters in the 2023 season -- tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% -- 97th Percentile.

Tyler Glasnow has a strike rate of 83% (29/35) with runners in scoring position this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% -- 100th Percentile.

The Dodgers are 28-15 (.651) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.

The Twins are 34-12 (.739) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .615.

The Twins are 18-54 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .142.

The Dodgers are 49-17 (.742) after a loss since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 8th	LAD	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	LAD +114
Apr 6th	CLE	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8	CLE -170
Apr 4th	CLE	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7	CLE -166
Apr 3rd	@MIL	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -112
Apr 2nd	@MIL	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	MIL +100

Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Glasnow, P	88	7	14	0
LA.Vesia, P	9	1	1	1
RC.Brogdon, P	21	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, SS	1-2	1	0	0
2S.Ohtani, DH	1-5	0	0	0
3F.Freeman, 1B	1-5	1	0	0
4W.Smith, C	2-5	2	1	3
5M.Muncy, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6T.Hernandez, RF	1-3	1	0	0
7J.Outman, CF	2-4	1	1	3
8C.Taylor, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9G.Lux, 2B	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Varland, P	97	5	6	6
RC.Sands, P	35	2	4	0
RB.Stewart, P	24	1	2	0
RJ.Alcala, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2C.Correa, SS	1-4	1	1	1
3A.Kirilloff, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
4B.Buxton, CF	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Miranda, DH	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Wallner, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7W.Castro, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8R.Jeffers, C	1-3	1	1	1
9A.Martin, LF	2-3	0	0	0