Giants vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2024

Giants at Braves

11:20 pm • MLB Network

San Francisco Giants

0-0

4 - 2

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Morton			4.19	8-10
L.Webb			3.47	13-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Giants 0-0	+1.5-190	o7.5-117	+110
Braves 0-2	-1.5+157	u7.5-105	-130

Thursday 11:20 p.m.

July 04, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

SF +114

$57.00

ATL -125

Under 8.5-130

Under 8-109

C.Morton u17.5 Outs-119

1.2u

Morton under in 8/15, with 3.97 pitches per PA (29th/118). I like the matchup here - the Giants have the fourth lowest chase rate over the L30, and Morton’s zone % of 40.7% is 107th of 147 pitchers with 50+ IP. Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup (Morton’s walk rate and pitches per PA bump up vs lefties), and overall are an excellent curveball hitting team (2nd in wRAA per 100 pitches).

ATL -1.5+170

SF +105

3.15u

Under 8-110

0.5u

Bet to -116

Over 8-110

1.1u

ATL -125

1.25u

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Featured Insight
The Braves have scored 5.4 runs per game at home since last season -- highest in MLB (122 games). The Giants have allowed 5.0 runs per game on the road since last season -- fifth highest in MLB (123 games).

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The Braves are 17-79 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Braves are 23-14 (.622) after a loss this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Giants are 4-37 (.098) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .055.

32% of Matt Chapman strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 36% of Jesse Chavez strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- seventh highest among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

Matt Chapman has struck out in 27% of PA's since the 2022 season -- eighth highest in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 30% since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (362/816) vs left-handed batters this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (79/126) against Logan Webb in two-strike counts this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (574/1,417) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (296/473) against Logan Webb since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 42% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Giants	77-85	37-44	40-41	34-46	42-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Giants	82-72-8	36-43-2	46-29-6	33-45-2	48-26-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Giants	80-82	42-39	38-43	45-35	34-46

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 3rd	SF	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -209
Jul 2nd	SF	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8	SF -198
Jun 30th	PIT	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 9	PIT -198
Jun 29th	PIT	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -142
Jun 28th	PIT	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 9	ATL -218

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Robbie Ray
P
Ray is out with hamstring
Out
Wilmer Flores
IF
Flores is out with knee
Out
Jordan Hicks
P
Hicks is out with shoulder
Out
Kyle Harrison
P
Harrison is out with shoulder
Out
Keaton Winn
P
Winn is out with elbow
Out
Jung Hoo Lee
OF
Lee is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Webb, P	104	7	6	2
RT.Rogers, P	9	1	1	0
RC.Doval, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Soler, DH	0-5	0	0	0
2L.Wade, 1B	2-3	1	0	0
3H.Ramos, CF	2-4	1	1	2
4P.Bailey, C	0-4	1	0	0
5M.Chapman, 3B	2-4	1	1	2
6M.Conforto, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Yastrzemski, RF	0-1	0	0	0
7L.Matos, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8B.Wisely, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Ahmed, SS	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	94	5.1	5	3
RG.Holmes, P	42	2.2	4	0
LA.Bummer, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	1-4	1	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-4	1	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-3	0	0
5A.Riley, 3B	1-3	0	1
6A.Duvall, RF	0-4	0	0
7S.Murphy, C	1-3	0	0
8F.Wall, LF	1-3	0	0
9Z.Short, SS	0-3	0	0