Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - June 29, 2023

Marlins at Red Sox

10:10 pm • NESN

Miami Marlins

5-1

2 - 0

Boston Red Sox

1-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Bello			4.24	12-11
J.Luzardo			3.63	10-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Marlins 5-1	N/A	N/A	N/A
Red Sox 1-5	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 10:10 p.m.

June 29, 2023

Fenway ParkBoston

BOS -121 (F5)

Over 4.5 (F5)-115

1.15u

Conditions (park/weather/umpire) are ripe for a high scoring game. Defenses combine for -24 Runs Prevented - BOS 119 wRC+ Hm/110 v LHP - MIA 116 team wRC+ L7 days - However, MIA pen has the best estimators in MLB L30 days (all < 3.10), so we'll avoid w/ F5

BOS -110 (F5)

1.1u

Over 8.5-118

0.59u

has gotten a little low

L.Arraez o1.5 Hits+150

0.5u

J.Luzardo o5.5 Ks-110

0.5u

Over 8.5-120

0.6u

Bet to -125 or 9 (-105)

Under 9-105

0.5u

BOS -115

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See more MLB Coverage

The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Luis Arraez has struck out in just 5% of PA's over the last 30 days -- lowest in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Brayan Bello has a strikeout rate of just 14% vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days -- tied for fifth lowest among qualified SPs-- eighth Percentile.

Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 49% (113/231) on sliders this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 63% -- first Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (18 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season -- 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .392 -- fourth Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 1-5 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Red Sox' last 5 games

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	1-5	N/A	1-5	1-4	0-1
Marlins	2-4	2-4	N/A	2-4	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	4-2	N/A	4-2	3-2	1-0
Marlins	3-3	3-3	N/A	3-3	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	1-5	N/A	1-5	1-4	0-1
Marlins	5-1	5-1	N/A	5-1	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 28th	MIA	L 2-6	-	-	-
Jun 27th	MIA	L 1-10	-	-	-
Jun 25th	@CWS	L 1-4	-	-	-
Jun 24th	@CWS	L 4-5	-	-	-
Jun 24th	@CWS	W 3-1	-	-	-

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Triston Casas
1B
Casas is out with knee
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with wrist
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with shoulder
Out

Esteury Ruiz
LF
Ruiz is out with oblique
Out
Kyle Stowers
LF
Stowers is out with hamstring
Out
Maximo Acosta
SS
Acosta is out with oblique
Out
Christopher Morel
LF
Christopher Morel (left oblique) scratched Friday.
Out
Adam Mazur
SP
Mazur is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LJ.Luzardo, P	99	6.1	9
LA.Nardi, P	7	0.2	1
LT.Scott, P	12	1	2
LA.Puk, P	16	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3B.De La Cruz, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3J. Davis, PR	0-0	0	0	0
3J. Davis, LF	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
5J. Segura, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
6J.Wendle, SS	2-4	0	0	0
7J.Berti, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
8J.Sanchez, RF	1-2	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Bello, P	99	7	5	1
RC.Martin, P	14	1	1	0
RK.Jansen, P	15	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Turner, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	1-4	0	0	0
6M.Yoshida, DH	0-3	0	0	0
7C. Arroyo, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Hernandez, SS	1-3	0	0	0
8D.Hamilton, PR	0-0	0	0	0
8D.Hamilton, SS	0-0	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	0-3	0	0	0