Mets vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - March 31, 2023

Mets at Marlins

10:40 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

4-4

1 - 2

Miami Marlins

5-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			3.63	10-9
D.Peterson			5.03	3-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 4-4	N/A	N/A	N/A
Marlins 5-2	N/A	N/A	N/A

Friday 10:40 p.m.

March 31, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

Under 8-115

$0.87

Over 8-105

1.05u

MIA +102

0.51u

Under 8-117

Total is up to 8, I’ll double down

MIA -105

0.95u

D.Peterson o5.5 Ks+110

0.5u

MIA -105

0.95u

Under 3.5 (F5)-105

0.95u

NYM -112

0.56u

MIA -105

MIA +105

0.26u

Sharp Plays // Resorts World

MIA -110 (F5)

0.91u

A.Garcia o1.5 Total Bases+170

0.5u

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+525

1.05u

Bet at Bet365. Fell short vs Sandy yesterday but Luzardo hasn’t fared well vs Mets. Might get chased early. Only HR bet I love for today.

MIA -101

Under 7.5-110

MIA -106

Under 8-120

Pod

Under 8-110

0.5u

Bet to 7.5 (+100)

NYM -115

1.15u

Mets 30 point wRC+ edge vs LHP LY, better pen & def. Patient LU could give Luzardo trouble, get to pen early.

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The Marlins were just 33-65 (.337) when underdogs in 2022 -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Mets are 152-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Marlins are just 112-10 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Pete Alonso hit 14 home runs on breaking pitches last season -- tied for fourth most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Jesus Luzardo threw his curveball 30% of the time last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB-- 91st Percentile.

Francisco Lindor hit 8 home runs on pitches 95 mph or greater last season -- tied for eighth most in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.1 MPH last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo's pitches (285/534) with two-strikes in 2022 -- 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% -- third Percentile.

David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% -- 0 Percentile.

David Peterson had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (238/455) in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 55% (352/642) when behind in the count in 2022 -- 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- second Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 0-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Marlins' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	2-5	2-4	0-1	2-4	0-1
Mets	4-4	2-1	2-3	4-4	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	4-3	3-3	1-0	3-3	1-0
Mets	3-5	1-2	2-3	3-5	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	5-2	5-1	0-1	5-1	0-1
Mets	4-4	2-1	2-3	4-4	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Mar 30th	NYM	L 3-5	-	-	-
Mar 26th	@NYM	L 3-3	-	-	-
Mar 26th	WSH	W 2-2	-	-	-
Mar 25th	@STL	L 2-3	-	-	-
Mar 24th	HOU	W 3-2	-	-	-

Francisco Lindor
SS
Lindor is questionable with hand
Questionable

Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out
Justin Hagenman
SP
Hagenman is out with ribs
Out

Esteury Ruiz
LF
Ruiz is out with oblique
Out
Kyle Stowers
LF
Stowers is out with hamstring
Out
Maximo Acosta
SS
Acosta is out with oblique
Out
Christopher Morel
LF
Christopher Morel (left oblique) scratched Friday.
Out
Adam Mazur
SP
Mazur is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	84	5	5	1
RT. Hunter, P	19	2	0	0
RJ.Curtiss, P	12	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-3	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	2-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-2	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
5M.Canha, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7E. Escobar, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8T.Pham, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8L.Guillorme, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8L.Guillorme, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Nido, C	0-2	0	0	0
9D.Vogelbach, PH	1-1	0	0	0
9T. Locastro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P	91	5.2	5	0
RJ.Chargois, P	14	1.1	1	0
RD.Floro, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	10	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
2J. Segura, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3G.Cooper, DH	3-4	0	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
5J.Soler, RF	2-4	1	1	1
5B.De La Cruz, LF	0-0	0	0	0
6A.Garcia, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6A.Garcia, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7Y.Gurriel, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
8N.Fortes, C	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Berti, SS	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Wendle, SS	0-0	0	0	0