Mets vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2024

Mets at Reds

5:40 pm • SNY

New York Mets

8-10

3 - 1

Cincinnati Reds

9-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Abbott			3.72	10-10
S.Manaea			3.47	12-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 8-10	-1.5+136	o8.5-110	-120
Reds 9-9	+1.5-162	u8.5-110	+100

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

April 07, 2024

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

A.Abbott u6.5 Ks-150

Juicy, but this is a line that Abbott stayed under in 15/21 last season. Only 4 Ks on 6 whiffs in the opener after a muted spring (8 Ks in 8 IP). The Mets had a below avg K% vs lefties last season (22.8%), and are tracking the same way this year (with roughly the same lineup).

CIN -104

$52.00

CIN -102

1.02u

CIN -105

C.Encarnacion-Strand o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs-120

1.2u

A.Abbott u5.5 Ks+115

0.58u

Ballpark pal projects -121 odds and 4.23% EV

CIN -106

… MLB home favs off a win Overall: 288-154-0,65% (ROI:15%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

NYM +100

0.5u

Bet to -102

Featured Insight
The Mets have scored first in 52% of their games since the 2022 season -- 10th highest in MLB. The Reds have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the Reds RPs since the 2022 season -- ninth best in MLB. Mets hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 39% since the 2022 season -- tied for ninth worst in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Dabbundo's MLB Bets for Sunday
Anthony Dabbundo•
Apr 7, 2024 UTC

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The Reds are just 38-18 (.679) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.

Joey Wendle had an OPS of just .554 last season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- first Percentile. Emilio Pagan allowed an OPS of just .553 (273 PAs) last season -- 15th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Pete Alonso is slugging .490 on sliders since the 2022 season -- 12th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. A.J. Minter has allowed a SLG of .431 on sliders since the 2022 season -- 13th worst among qualified RPs-- 12th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott's curve and slider in the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (33/163) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% -- 10th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 6th	NYM	W 9-6	-1.5 W	O 9.5	CIN -125
Apr 5th	NYM	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	NYM -135
Apr 3rd	@PHI	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CIN +158
Apr 2nd	@PHI	L 4-9	+1.5 L	O 8	PHI +120
Apr 1st	@PHI	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 8	CIN +122

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.Manaea, P	92	5	6	1
RJ.Lopez, P	20	1	2	0
LB.Raley, P	20	1	0	0
RA.Ottavino, P	12	1	2	0
RE.Diaz, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	0-4	0	0	1
2F.Lindor, SS	2-5	2	1	1
3P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4F.Alvarez, C	1-3	0	0	0
5B.Baty, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6S.Marte, DH	2-3	1	0	0
7T.Taylor, RF	2-4	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Abbott, P	95	5	4	2
RT.Antone, P	1	0	0	0
LB.Suter, P	36	3	0	0
RB.Farmer, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, DH	0-3	0	0
2S.Steer, LF	0-3	0	0
3C.Encarnacion-Strand, 1B	1-4	0	0
4J.Candelario, 3B	0-3	1	0
5S.Fairchild, RF	1-3	0	0
5W.Benson, PH	0-1	0	0
5W.Benson, RF	0-1	0	0
6E.De La Cruz, SS	0-2	0	0
7S.Espinal, 2B	0-2	0	1
7J.Fraley, PH	0-1	0	0
8L.Maile, C	0-2	0	0
9B.Thompson, CF	1-3	0	0
9N.Martini, PH	0-1	0	0