Orioles vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 6, 2023

Orioles at Braves

11:15 pm • FOX

Baltimore Orioles

3-3

4 - 5

Atlanta Braves

5-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Strider			3.86	20-5
K.Bradish			2.83	12-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Braves 5-2	N/A	N/A	N/A

Saturday 11:15 p.m.

May 06, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

S.Strider o8.5 Ks-125

$1.00

BAL +210

$1.00

BAL +220

0.25u

Small to +210

Under 4.5 (F5)-125

1.2u

-115

ATL o4.5-120

ATL -1 (F5)-120

$1.20

ATL -1.5-115

$1.15

R.Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases+105

$1.00

S.Strider o8.5 Ks-125

0.8u

Under 8.5-115

1.15u

Under 8.5-115

0.58u

Bet to 8 (-107)

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.6u

Bet to -125

BAL +200

1.1u

BAL +195

ATL has a large SP edge, but it's pretty close everywhere else - BAL 123/107 wRC+ Rd/v RHP, ATL 106/105 - Both defenses have been bottom 4 in MLB (Runs Prevented) - 2nd (BAL) & 3rd (ATL) best bullpen estimators L30 days

Under 8.5-115

$60.00

Two excellent starters (obviously Strider >>>) and solid bullpens

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The Braves are 6-3 (.667) when their opponents score in the first inning this season -- tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

The Braves are just 7-8 (.467) at home this season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.

The Orioles are 4-3 (.571) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season -- 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Adam Frazier had an OPS of just .619 last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Max Fried allowed an OPS of just .581 (733 PAs) last season -- 14th best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Kyle Bradish has not struck out any hitters in 16 PA's in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season -- tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- second Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (57 SO in 139 PAs) this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Braves' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	5-2	4-2	1-0	5-2	N/A
Orioles	2-4	2-4	N/A	2-3	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	1-6	0-6	1-0	1-6	N/A
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	2-3	1-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	5-2	4-2	1-0	5-2	N/A
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	3-2	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	BAL	L 4-9	-	-	-
May 4th	@MIA	W 6-3	-	-	-
May 3rd	@MIA	W 14-6	-	-	-
May 2nd	@MIA	W 6-0	-	-	-
May 1st	@NYM	L 3-5	-	-	-

Heston Kjerstad
LF
Kjerstad is out with hamstring
Out
Jordan Westburg
3B
Westburg is out with elbow
Out
Jackson Holliday
2B
Holliday is out with hand
Out

Joey Wentz
RP
Wentz is out with knee
Out
Sean Murphy
C
Murphy is out with hip
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
SS
Kim is out with finger
Out
Spencer Strider
SP
Strider is out with oblique
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
SP
Schwellenbach is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out with elbow
Out
Hurston Waldrep
SP
Waldrep is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Bradish, P	86	5	4	3
LC.Perez, P	16	1.1	1	0
RB.Baker, P	19	1	0	1
LD.Coulombe, P	14	0.2	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Mullins, CF	1-4	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	0	0
3R.Mountcastle, DH	2-4	2	0
4A.Santander, RF	2-4	2	1
5G.Henderson, 3B	0-4	0	0
6A.Frazier, 2B	1-4	0	3
7J.Mateo, SS	1-4	0	0
8K.Stowers, LF	0-2	0	0
8R.McKenna, PH	1-2	0	0
8R.McKenna, LF	1-2	0	0
9R.Urias, 1B	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Strider, P	95	5	10	2
RN.Anderson, P	19	1	0	1
LD.Lee, P	20	1	2	0
LA.Minter, P	17	1	2	0
RR.Iglesias, P	13	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-3	0	0	1
2M.Olson, 1B	1-3	1	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
4S.Murphy, C	0-3	0	0	0
5E.Rosario, LF	1-3	0	0	1
5K.Pillar, PH	1-1	1	1	2
5K.Pillar, LF	1-1	1	1	2
6O.Albies, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	1	1
8M.Harris, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9V.Grissom, SS	2-3	1	0	0
9B.Shewmake, SS	0-0	0	0	0