Pirates vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - April 11, 2024

Pirates at Phillies

10:40 pm • MLB Network

Pittsburgh Pirates

15-29

1 - 5

Philadelphia Phillies

25-18

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Suarez			3.47	12-8
J.Jones			4.14	6-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 15-29	+1.5-175	o9-121	+112
Phillies 25-18	-1.5+145	u9+100	-132

Thursday 10:40 p.m.

April 11, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

R.Suárez u5.5 Ks-118

0.5u

Ballpark pal projects 4.65 Ks and +EV bet with devig odds of -144 giving value at this number

PIT +125

1.5u

B.Stott u0.5 Total Bases+142

Fading players in slumps

PIT +125

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.5u

PIT +130

PIT +132

0.5u

PIT +126 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +118

Featured Insight
Pirates have struck out just 18% over the last week -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB. Phillies have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last week -- tied for third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Phillies have scored 2.7 runs per game in the first five innings since the 2022 season -- tied for fifth highest in MLB (336 games). The Pirates have allowed 2.8 runs per game in the first five innings since the 2022 season -- sixth highest in MLB (336 games).

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MLB Props: Expert Picks for Thursday
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The Pirates are 39-8 (.830) when they've had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

The Phillies are 23-17 (.575) after a road win since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .493.

Nick Castellanos hit 16 home runs on breaking pitches last season -- tied for fourth most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Ryan Borucki threw a breaking pitch 69% of the time last season -- fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (125/169) this season -- highest among in NL; League Avg: 64% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 11-10 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Phillies' 22 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	21-22	10-12	11-10	16-19	5-3
Pirates	19-25	10-12	9-13	4-11	15-14

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	19-23-1	12-10	7-13-1	16-18-1	3-5
Pirates	16-25-3	10-11-1	6-14-2	6-9	10-16-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	25-18	14-8	11-10	21-14	4-4
Pirates	15-29	9-13	6-16	5-10	10-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 10th	@STL	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -140
Apr 9th	@STL	L 0-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	STL -140
Apr 8th	@STL	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8.5	PHI -105
Apr 7th	@WSH	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	WSH -155
Apr 6th	@WSH	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 8	PHI -198

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable

Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out
Jared Triolo
2B
Triolo is questionable with back
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
1B
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Jones, P	85	6.1	8	3
RC.Holderman, P	9	0.2	0	1
RH.Stratton, P	13	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Joe, 1B	0-3	0	0
1R.Tellez, PH	0-1	0	0
1R.Tellez, 1B	0-1	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	0	0
3K.Hayes, 3B	0-2	0	0
4E.Olivares, RF	2-4	1	0
5A.McCutchen, DH	0-4	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	1-4	0	0
7O.Cruz, SS	1-4	0	0
8J.Triolo, 2B	1-4	0	1
9H.Davis, C	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	97	6	8	0
RY.Marte, P	23	1	3	0
RN.Nelson, P	33	2	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Realmuto, C	1-4	1	0	0
5A.Bohm, 3B	2-3	1	1	1
6B.Marsh, CF	1-3	1	1	2
7N.Castellanos, RF	0-3	1	0	0
8B.Stott, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
9W.Merrifield, LF	0-3	0	0	0