Rays vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 5, 2023

Rays at Nationals

5:05 pm • MASN

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

7 - 2

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Corbin			5.20	10-15
S.McClanahan			3.29	11-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 0-0	-1.5-162	o8.5-115	-275
Nationals 0-0	+1.5+137	u8.5-105	+220

Wednesday 5:05 p.m.

April 05, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

Under 11.5-102

0.98u

W.Franco o0.5 HR+650

3.25u

P.Corbin u15.5 Outs-105

0.53u

TB o5-125

$52.00

5 at Ceasars - 5.5 is fine too if plus money

TB o2.5 (F5)-120

0.5u

TB -1.5-150

0.5u

Over 8-110

Great hitting weather today in DC with the temperature at 83 degrees and winds out to left at 11 miles per hour. Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nats, and while I think the Nats' moneyline is a value, that is still typically a boon for the over. The Rays have plenty of guys who can spank lefties around. Given the weather and Corbin's presence, the over here looks mighty fine.

WSH +220

0.25u

Keeping units low here until I have a larger sample on whether my MLB moneyline is performing well. Available at FanDuel. It's never fun to have money riding on Patrick Corbin, but I've got the Nats' win odds at 36.0%, up from 31.3% implied. Part of this is because my numbers are a bit lower on Shane McClanahan than the market, which could be way off. I don't blame you if you'd rather pass here, but it does grade out as a good value for me.

TB -1.5-140

TB -220 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -240. Hi Patrick.

Under 8-115

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The Nationals are just 49-100 (.329) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Nationals are just 10-12 (.455) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season -- 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.

The Rays are 41-11 (.788) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

84% of non-fastball strikeouts for Wander Franco were located out of the zone last season -- eighth highest among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- 97th Percentile. 85% of Patrick Corbin non-fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

86% of non-fastball strikeouts for Manuel Margot were located out of the zone last season -- third highest among hitters with at least 241 total PA's-- 99th Percentile. 85% of Patrick Corbin non-fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .188 (98-for-520) against Shane McClanahan since last season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 -- 93rd Percentile.

Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 35% (363/1,048) against Shane McClanahan in 2022 -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 93rd Percentile.

Patrick Corbin allowed an OBP of .337 (341 PA's) with two-strikes in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .363 (110-for-303) against Patrick Corbin on the road since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .248 -- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	TB	L 6-10	+1.5 L	O 9	TB +149
Apr 3rd	TB	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8	TB +152
Apr 2nd	ATL	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	WSH +150
Apr 1st	ATL	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	ATL +200
Mar 30th	ATL	L 2-7	+1.5 L	O 7.5	ATL +210

Jeffrey Springs
P
Springs is out with elbow
Out
Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.McClanahan, P	94	6	6	2
LC.Poche, P	13	1	0	0
LG.Cleavinger, P	8	1	0	0
RR.Thompson, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	1-4	2	0	0
2W. Franco, SS	2-4	1	1	2
3I.Paredes, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, LF	2-4	1	0	1
5H.Ramirez, DH	2-4	1	1	1
6M.Margot, RF	1-4	1	0	0
7T.Walls, 2B	2-4	1	0	1
8J.Siri, CF	1-3	0	0	2
9F. Mejia, C	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LP.Corbin, P	92	6	3	6
RT.Ward, P	40	2	3	1
LA.Banda, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Thomas, RF	0-3	0	0
2A.Call, LF	0-3	0	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	0-4	0	0
4J.Meneses, 1B	1-4	1	0
5K.Ruiz, C	1-4	0	0
6M. Chavis, 2B	1-3	0	1
6I.Vargas, PH	0-1	0	0
7S.Garrett, DH	1-2	1	0
8V.Robles, CF	2-3	0	1
9C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0