Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2023

Red Sox at Brewers

12:10 am • BSWI

Boston Red Sox

16-14

5 - 3

Milwaukee Brewers

14-15

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 16-14	+1.5-145	o8.5-120	+140
Brewers 14-15	-1.5+120	u8.5-102	-170

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

April 22, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

F.Peralta o1.5 BB-135

Peralta has a BB/9 of 3.71 and based on his underlying metrics I would expect him to be closer to 3.84. Peralta isn’t getting hitters to chase pitches outside of the zone as much this season. He’s going to continue to have a high walk rate if that continues. Red Sox will have 6 LHB tonight which will only increase Peralta’s expected BB% who has walked RHB at an 8% rate compared to 13% against LHB in his career. Projecting this closer to -175

MIL -170

1.7u

W.Adames o1.5 Total Bases+116

1.16u

BOS u1.5 (F5)+105

MIL -162

Available at FanDuel. My model has the Brewers at 64.9% to win versus 60.9% implied. This is due to the issues Nick Pivetta has had with hard contact. It was a problem for him last year, but in three starts this year, he's letting up a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 50.0% fly-ball rate. His ERA is *fine* at 4.50, but there are some cracks beneath the surface. Combine that with concerns around the Red Sox's defense, and I think the Brewers are a good value here.

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

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The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 9-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Brewers' 13 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	17-12	8-5	9-7	9-5	7-7
Red Sox	15-15	6-8	9-7	11-12	4-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	11-15-3	5-7-1	6-8-2	5-8-1	6-6-2
Red Sox	14-15-1	6-7-1	8-8	10-12-1	4-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	14-15	9-4	5-11	10-4	3-11
Red Sox	16-14	8-6	8-8	13-10	3-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 19th	@SEA	W 5-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL +115
Apr 19th	@SEA	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +140
Apr 18th	@SEA	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -145
Apr 16th	@SD	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 8	MIL +150
Apr 15th	@SD	L 3-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	SD +123

Brandon Woodruff
SP
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
CF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
CF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
SP
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
SP
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
SP
Giolito is out with hamstring
Out
Connor Wong
C
Wong is out with finger
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P	100	5.2	7	3
RJ.Winckowski, P	41	2.1	4	0
RK.Jansen, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	2-5	1	1	2
2R.Devers, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	1-3	1	0	0
4M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	0	0	1
5E.Hernandez, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
7R.McGuire, C	0-2	0	0	0
7R.Refsnyder, PH	1-1	0	0	1
7C.Wong, C	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Duran, CF	2-4	1	0	1
9Y. Chang, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	99	5.2	4	4
LH.Milner, P	18	1	0	0
RB.Wilson, P	33	2.1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-4	0	0	1
2J.Winker, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	1-3	1	1	1
5W.Contreras, C	2-4	1	0	0
5B.Perkins, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5V.Caratini, C	0-0	0	0	0
6B.Anderson, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
8O.Miller, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Wiemer, CF	1-4	0	0	0