Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 22, 2023

Red Sox at Brewers

12:10 am • BSWI

Boston Red Sox

11-8

5 - 3

Milwaukee Brewers

12-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 11-8	+1.5-145	o8.5-120	+140
Brewers 12-9	-1.5+120	u8.5-102	-170

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

April 22, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

F.Peralta o1.5 BB-135

Peralta has a BB/9 of 3.71 and based on his underlying metrics I would expect him to be closer to 3.84. Peralta isn’t getting hitters to chase pitches outside of the zone as much this season. He’s going to continue to have a high walk rate if that continues. Red Sox will have 6 LHB tonight which will only increase Peralta’s expected BB% who has walked RHB at an 8% rate compared to 13% against LHB in his career. Projecting this closer to -175

MIL -170

1.7u

W.Adames o1.5 Total Bases+116

1.16u

BOS u1.5 (F5)+105

MIL -162

Available at FanDuel. My model has the Brewers at 64.9% to win versus 60.9% implied. This is due to the issues Nick Pivetta has had with hard contact. It was a problem for him last year, but in three starts this year, he's letting up a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 50.0% fly-ball rate. His ERA is *fine* at 4.50, but there are some cracks beneath the surface. Combine that with concerns around the Red Sox's defense, and I think the Brewers are a good value here.

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

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The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 19th	@SEA	W 5-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL +115
Apr 19th	@SEA	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +140
Apr 18th	@SEA	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -145
Apr 16th	@SD	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 8	MIL +150
Apr 15th	@SD	L 3-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	SD +123

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is questionable with back
Questionable

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Rafael Devers
IF
Devers is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Brayan Bello
P
Bello is questionable with shoulder
Questionable
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P	100	5.2	7	3
RJ.Winckowski, P	41	2.1	4	0
RK.Jansen, P	12	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	2-5	1	1	2
2R.Devers, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	1-3	1	0	0
4M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	0	0	1
5E.Hernandez, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
7R.McGuire, C	0-2	0	0	0
7R.Refsnyder, PH	1-1	0	0	1
7C.Wong, C	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Duran, CF	2-4	1	0	1
9Y. Chang, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	99	5.2	4	4
LH.Milner, P	18	1	0	0
RB.Wilson, P	33	2.1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-4	0	0	1
2J.Winker, DH	0-4	0	0	0
3W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	1-3	1	1	1
5W.Contreras, C	2-4	1	0	0
5B.Perkins, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5V.Caratini, C	0-0	0	0	0
6B.Anderson, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
8O.Miller, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Wiemer, CF	1-4	0	0	0