Reds vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 10, 2023

Montgomery is under this line in 6/12, incl 4/L5. Got roughed up by the reds at GABP two weeks ago (4IP 7H 4ER), and even in STL with the wind blowing in, I like him to struggle again today. Reds got blanked by Kershaw yesterday, but still have kept 15/19 lefties under this line this season (openers excluded). Over the L30 days, Cinci ranks 9th in wRC+ (121), 6th in OPS (.835), 3rd in average (.304), and 9th in hard hit% (36.4%) vs lefties. Montgomery’s struggles can be tied to his curveball, which had been a go-to pitch for him, but his hard hit rate, xOBA and xSLG against the pitch have all skyrocketed this season. Reds as a team are also top 10 in wRC vs curveballs. And as Monty loses faith in his curve, he’ll have to rely on his other, even more hittable pitches (sinker and change).

I think the gap between these two teams is smaller than the market implies. The Reds' offense keeps getting more fun and frisky with each guy they call up. They also have seen great stuff out of Ben Lively thus far. I'd expect his strikeouts to regress a bit, but even accounting for that, he projects to be at least solid moving forward. On the other side, Jordan Montgomery has come back to earth a bit from his hot end to last year, specifically in the strikeout department. I've got the Reds' win odds above 45%, so getting them at 40% implied is more than enough to take the plunge.

Bet to -108