Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 14, 2024

Reds at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • ARID

Cincinnati Reds

9-8

5 - 6

Arizona Diamondbacks

10-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Montgomery			6.23	8-7
G.Ashcraft			5.24	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 9-8	+1.5	+1.5-155	o9-105	+136
Diamondbacks 10-10	u8.5	-1.5+130	u9-115	-162

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

May 14, 2024

Chase FieldPhoenix

ARI -0.5 (F5)-115

1.74u

G.Ashcraft u4.5 Ks-140

0.71u

Ballpark pal projects 4.1 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -187 giving value to this number

ARI -154

0.49u

Tailing @Steakfriend123

ARI -154

ARI -146

ARI -148 (F5)

ARI -140

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -150

ARI -145 (F5)

0.25u

Small to -150

CIN +128

0.9u

Jordan Montgomery pitched well against the Reds last week, but he didn't get whiffs, and his overall form coming off his layoff isn't great. Primarily betting against him, given the underlying data. Also prefer the Reds' bullpen to the Diamondbacks'.

G.Ashcraft u4.5 Ks-125

Under in each of his L4, including a 2 K, 6 whiff performance in his last start vs ARI. Now pitching in Arizona, where the DBacks have a 17% K% vs righties.

Featured Insight
Reds right-handed hitters have struck out just 17% against LHP over the last two weeks -- third lowest in MLB. Diamondbacks RPs have a strikeout rate of just 20% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Diamondbacks have allowed just 3.3 runs per game on the road over the last two weeks -- fifth lowest in MLB (6 games). The Reds have scored just 1.8 runs per game at home over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB (6 games).

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The Reds are 22-8 (.733) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .577.

Ketel Marte is slugging .543 this season -- 11th best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Graham Ashcraft has allowed a SLG of .500 vs left-handed batters this season -- tied for 10th worst among qualified SPs-- 16th Percentile.

Ketel Marte has a miss rate of only 10% on inside fastballs since last season -- tied for 12th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Graham Ashcraft has located his fastball inside 41% of the time since last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 12th	@BAL	W 9-2	+1.5 W	O 7.5	ARI +107
May 11th	@BAL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 9	BAL +130
May 10th	@BAL	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	BAL +114
May 9th	@CIN	W 5-4	-	-	-
May 8th	@CIN	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 9	ARI -107

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Ashcraft, P	94	4	3	3
RE.Pagan, P	17	1	3	0
LB.Suter, P	13	1	0	0
RF.Cruz, P	32	1	2	1
LJ.Wilson, P	14	0.2	2	0
RL.Sims, P	1	0.1	0	0
RA.Diaz, P	21	0.1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.India, 2B	2-4	0	0
2E.De La Cruz, SS	1-4	1	0
3S.Steer, LF	1-4	1	2
4T.Stephenson, C	1-4	1	0
5J.Candelario, 1B	2-4	1	1
6M.Ford, DH	2-4	0	2
6J.Hurtubise, DH	0-0	0	0
6J.Hurtubise, PR	0-0	0	0
7S.Fairchild, CF	0-1	0	0
7J.Fraley, PH	0-2	0	0
7J.Fraley, RF	0-2	0	0
8S.Espinal, 3B	1-4	1	0
9W.Benson, RF	0-3	0	0
9W.Benson, CF	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Montgomery, P	101	5.1	7	3
RR.Thompson, P	7	0.2	0	0
LJ.Mantiply, P	16	1	1	0
RK.Ginkel, P	24	1	1	2
RJ.Martinez, P	20	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, CF	0-3	0	0	0
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
3J.Pederson, DH	2-5	1	1	1
4C.Walker, 1B	1-4	2	0	0
5L.Gurriel, LF	0-3	1	0	0
6E.Suarez, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
7G.Moreno, C	1-2	2	1	1
8P.Smith, RF	1-1	0	0	1
8R.Grichuk, PH	0-2	0	0	0
8R.Grichuk, RF	0-2	0	0	0
8J.McCarthy, RF	0-0	0	0	0
9K.Newman, SS	4-5	0	0	2