Twins vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2023

Twins at Reds

4:35 pm • MLB Network

Minnesota Twins

6-8

5 - 3

Cincinnati Reds

9-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
H.Greene			4.82	4-7
B.Ober			3.43	8-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 6-8	+1.5-192	o8.5-120	+114
Reds 9-7	-1.5+160	u8.5-105	-135

Wednesday 4:35 p.m.

September 20, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

B.Ober o14.5 Outs-168

0.6u

CIN -125

1.88u

CIN -1.5+161

0.5u

CIN -1.5+160

0.75u

Godamnit Biev

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Sep 20, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

Elly De La Cruz has struck out in 34% of PA's this season -- 10th highest among hitters with at least 225 total PA's-- second Percentile. Jhoan Duran has a strikeout rate of 33% this season -- tied for 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Carlos Correa is slugging just .259 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. 99% of Hunter Greene fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (166/477) of left-handed batters he faced since last season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (84 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .584 -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 47-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Reds' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 19th	MIN	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 9.5	MIN +105
Sep 18th	MIN	W 7-3	+1.5 W	O 9.5	CIN +130
Sep 17th	@NYM	L 4-8	+1.5 L	O 9	NYM +115
Sep 16th	@NYM	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN -104
Sep 15th	@NYM	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	CIN -105

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Ober, P	97	5	3	2
RJ.Winder, P	29	2	2	1
RJ.Duran, P	21	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Julien, DH	1-4	0	0	1
1M.Wallner, PR	0-0	0	0	0
1M.Wallner, DH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, PH	0-0	0	0	0
1R.Jeffers, DH	0-0	0	0	0
2J.Polanco, 2B	1-5	0	0	2
3D.Solano, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4M.Kepler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5W.Castro, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
6K.Farmer, SS	1-4	1	0	1
7A. Stevenson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
7A. Stevenson, CF	1-3	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	2-3	2	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9T.Larnach, LF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	92	7	14	1
RI.Gibaut, P	16	1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	15	0.1	0	3
LS.Moll, P	14	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
2T.Friedl, CF	1-5	0	0	1
3S.Steer, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Fraley, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Encarnacion-Strand, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
5N.Senzel, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
6J. Votto, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6S.Fairchild, LF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Marte, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8W.Benson, RF	1-3	2	0	0
9L.Maile, C	1-3	0	0	1
9N.Martini, PH	0-0	0	0	0