Editor's Note: Reports now indicate that Lionel Messi is unlikely to feature against Atlanta United.
Atlanta United vs Inter Miami Odds
| Atlanta United Odds | +100 |
| Inter Miami Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 /+150 |
Questions around Lionel Messi's availability surround Inter Miami as they eye Saturday's match at Atlanta United.
Messi scored the winner via a free kick in Argentina's 2026 World Cup Qualifying opener against Ecuador, but he also departed the game early and wasn't included in the squad's 3-0 win against Bolivia on Tuesday.
Miami kept on winning without their Argentine superstar last weekend and beat Sporting Kansas City 3-2 at home. However, a trip to Atlanta could pose a far stiffer test before what could be a crowd of more than 70,000 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
If Messi does play, this will be the second MLS team he faces for a second time. The Herons were 4-0 winners at home in their group stage meeting in the 2023 Leagues Cup.
Atlanta United
At their best, Atlanta United looks capable of beating any team in the league. At their worst, they are one of the most frustrating MLS sides.
However, the overall product has been a bit more consistent since the summer additions of Xande Silva and Saba Lobzhanidze.
The duo has combined for three goals in seven appearances to supplement the production of striker Giorgos Giakoumakis and playmaker Thiago Almada. Those additions make for a far more balanced attacking group than the one that faltered in Atlanta's Leagues Cup loss to Miami.
Inter Miami
On Friday, manager Tata Martino said Messi didn't have a substantive injury, but also said it was uncertain whether Messi would play in Atlanta following his extensive travel for international play.
Part of the concern is the circumstances. Not only is the game on artificial turf, but it's also the first of seven in a 22-day stretch for Miami.
Messi's massive presence can obscure how much more Miami did to transform their roster during the summer window. And Saturday's short-handed victory was a great chance to observe just what else the Herons changed.
Two other additions — Sergio Busquets and Facundo Farias — combined for what became the winning goal.
Leonardo Campana scored Miami's first two goals, one of which came via a penalty spot. Despite only starting once, he's found the net five times in his past five appearances.
Atlanta United vs Inter Miami
Pick & Prediction
By now, you're familiar with the idea that Miami has far outperformed its xG totals with Messi.
I've said for a while that such performances aren't sustainable, though I'm beginning to rethink that — at least when the opposing team is facing Messi for the first time.
The manner in which other teams fail to capitalize on chances against Messi and company has been so consistent that it almost has to be attributed to something other than variance. My working theory is that every team playing Messi for the first time responds negatively to the increased level of media attention.
I also think those teams will be less likely to wilt in additional games against Messi, when the scrutiny is more familiar.
So, back Atlanta here? Not quite.
The +300 price on the draw is too lucrative. Miami has played to a 90-minute draw in half of their away matches.
The high price on the total of over 3.5 goals also opens an opportunity to make a wager on four or fewer goals being scored. My favorite bet is the 3-4 multi-goal play at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability. That's cashed in nine of Atlanta's 14 MLS home games, and in three of Miami's six away games since Messi arrived.
