Columbus Crew vs LAFC Odds
| Columbus Crew Odds | +120 |
| LAFC Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Columbus Crew will host LAFC in the battle to be Major League Soccer's new champion in Saturday's 2023 MLS Cup final.
Columbus are looking to lift their third MLS Cup and their second in four seasons after defeating Seattle 3-0 at home in the 2020 final.
Meanwhile, LAFC are looking to be the first repeat champions since the LA Galaxy accomplished the feat in 2011 and 2012.
LAFC have won all three all-time regular-season meetings between the sides, though it's hard to tell if that means much. None of those came this season, and only one featured either of the coaches who will be involved.
Read on for my Columbus Crew vs LAFC prediction ahead of the MLS Cup championship.
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Columbus Crew
Columbus are the quintessential team that reaches their peak at the right time after a regular season in which they were even overshadowed in Ohio by FC Cincinnati's Supporters' Shield-winning endeavors.
But since the end of August, the Crew have been too consistently good to merely say they've "gotten hot."
Manager Wilfried Nancy is in his first season in Columbus after two strong years with Montreal. And with star attacker Cucho Hernandez also in his first full year in MLS, it was reasonable to expect a learning curve during the first half of the season.
Since league play resumed following the inaugural Leagues Cup, the Crew have played like a title contender, earning 21 points in an 11-game stretch that included seven games against eventual playoff qualifiers.
Add in their postseason exploits and they've won 10 of their last 17 matches while posting an average expected goals difference of +0.8 per 90 minutes, a margin would easily be the best in the league if posted over a full season.
Hernandez has scored or assisted in all five of the Crew's playoff matches, totaling six goal involvements. That included a clever header to set up Christian Ramirez's extra-time winner in the Eastern Conference final win over FC Cincinnati.
LAFC
Meanwhile, LAFC have also found a second wind after an exhausting season that included a run to the CONCACAF Champions League final and the Leagues Cup quarterfinal.
The defending champions have won six of their last seven (and drawn the other) between the close of the regular season and the playoffs, and haven't conceded in their last three playoff games.
It's not only been a change in form but also a change in approach from manager Steve Cherundolo that has accompanied this most recent playoff push.
The Black-and-Gold have never been super dependent on having the ball, but they've taken that to extremes in their triumphs at Seattle and home to Houston in the Western Conference semis and finals, holding only 31% possession. It worked brilliantly in the latter game. In the former, it was more a matter of good fortune and excellent goalkeeping by Maxime Crepeau.
If you go back through LAFC's last 11 games, their +0.6 xGDiff per 90 minutes is nearly as good as Columbus over the latter stages of the season. But more of LAFC's dominant xG performances are weighted toward home games, in particular against non-playoff qualifiers. The East was also the stronger conference top to bottom this season.
Denis Bouanga has added four playoff goals to his MLS Golden Boot-winning total of 20 this regular season. But despite playing out wide — and not as a center forward — he is probably less of a dual threat as an assist man than Hernandez.
Columbus Crew vs LAFC
Prediction
When you're betting on a final, you have to consider the occasion — which impacts how teams will approach the match — in addition to what each team has done to this point. And the MLS Cup final is a pretty unique occasion in the soccer world.
While it is a cup final, it also has a home-and-away dynamic, making it different from most other big winner-take-all games around the globe. And there's several trends to consider from the 12 finals since it switched to the higher-seed-hosts format beginning in 2011.
- No game has featured more than four goals over the 90 minutes, and only two have featured fewer than two.
- The visiting team has won in regulation only once (Portland in 2015).
- Only three out of 12 visiting teams have won overall, with the other two doing so in penalties.
- The home team has won by multiple goals five times
Then you add in metrics that show Columbus have been better and more consistent than LAFC of late, and the reality that this might not be the best matchup for LAFC's recent approach.
Major League Soccer is full of teams who are more comfortable trying to create transition opportunities as they are trying to keep the ball. That has clearly worked in LAFC's favor of late in which they've made opponents try and create the game.
But Columbus led all of MLS in possession figures in the regular season, and they won't be nearly as bothered if LAFC take the deep-lying approach they did against Seattle or Houston. And if LAFC do something they haven't done all postseason — concede the first goal — I think they could be in a lot of trouble.
Meanwhile, the Crew have already proven their ability to come from behind in their conference final win at FC Cincinnati. And while they might not be as talented across the board, they might have more bench pieces capable of changing the game (i.e. Ramirez) than LAFC does.
So I'm backing the Crew here, but conservatively in deference to LAFC's talent level. I'm playing a same-game parlay on Columbus to at least draw and the total to go over 1.5 goals at -135 odds and an implied 57.4% probability.
