MLS Odds, Picks: Sounders vs Sporting KC Betting Prediction (May 7)

Major League Soccer continues into May with Matchday 11, which will end with roughly one-third of the season complete, and includes three games between familiar rivals.

In the East on Saturday, the Philadelphia Union reprise their recent playoff history in a visit to the New York Red Bulls.

LAFC travels up the I-5 to pay a visit to the San Jose Earthquakes and on Sunday, the Seattle Sounders host Sporting Kansas City in a meeting of recent Western Conference contenders.

Let's get to the picks.

MLS Odds & Picks

New York Red Bulls vs. Philadelphia Union

The New York Red Bulls have the best expected-goals difference in the Eastern Conference, but with a major lurking variable.

The Red Bulls' +5.4 xG difference is based on a 10-game segment in which they've spent 341 minutes trailing and just 35 minutes holding a lead. 

So while they've been able to generate chances after going behind, spending so much time chasing the game depresses how much opponents are actually trying to create chances.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is done with their Concacaf Champions League commitments after a 3-0 loss at LAFC on Tuesday night.

And because they had a bye the weekend before, there's no reason for them not to play a full-strength squad here, with the aim of putting that disappointment behind them.

Philadelphia is also the MLS team that plays the closest style to the Red Bulls' relentless press. The Union are unbeaten in their past seven regular-season meetings against RBNY, a trend likely to continue now that they're not balancing two competitions.

I played the Union draw no bet early at +165. But between the line movement and some further research, there's a play I now like better — Philadelphia or draw (double chance) and under 3.5 total goals at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. That bet has cashed in seven straight between these teams.

Note: This wager is available in the "match combos" section on the BetMGM app.

Quillen's Pick: Philadelphia or draw and under 3.5 total goals, same game parlay (+105)

San Jose vs. LAFC

Los Angeles Football Club opened at +200 or higher on the moneyline.

Bettors quickly snapped that up and the price increased about 60 to 80 cents, depending on where you wager. In the process, arguably the most likely outcome — the draw — has gone overlooked.

MLS teams are drawing about 30% of their games this season, and the trend is more pronounced with LAFC, which has settled for draws in three of their four road games.

Meanwhile, San Jose has posted a 4-0-1 record record at home, but three of those wins have come by a goal. The Quakes also haven't played a home matches against a team that reached the 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs. So even if you buy into their home form, this game will be tight and a step up in class.

I bet both the draw and LAFC moneyline when they opened in a simulated double chance wager. The former still has a lot of value at +260 and an implied 27.8% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Draw Moneyline (+260, BetRivers)

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Seattle vs. Kansas City

The Seattle Sounders have kept clean sheets in all five of their home matches. But they haven’t always deserved it, and aside from a visit from LAFC, have played a relatively soft home schedule.

Theoretically, Sporting Kansas City would be a continuation of that as they search for their first win of the season. But while this SKC team isn't good right now, they're also not as bad as their results suggest, particularly in attack, where they've only scored three goals, well beneath their +5.4 xG created.

Manager Peter Vermes’ SKC quad is also getting healthier. Striker Alan Pulido has finally returned to a starting role, even if he's not quite the same force he was before his injury. Attacking midfielder Gadi Kinda made his first MLS appearance since 2021 last week.

The visitors are also veteran-laden and have memories of winning three of their past four visits to Seattle. That doesn’t mean this year’s side will suddenly turn into the 2021 version of SKC, which won twice in Seattle, but they also aren’t likely to shy away from one of the more hostile environments in the league.

I think this is a good spot to buy low on both teams to score at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Yes – Both teams to score (-110, PointsBet)