The 2023 MLS Playoffs begin with an old-turned-new format this weekend, in which the first round proper will be contested as a best-of-three series.
It's the first time the league has employed best-of-three in any form since 2002, and how it will impact the behavior of matches is a pretty big unknown. There is no extra time in any of the individual games, with the match going to penalties if level after 90 minutes.
In the Western Conference on Saturday night, LAFC begins their 2022 MLS Cup title defense against a maturing Vancouver Whitecaps squad. On Sunday, FC Cincinnati tries starts their attempt at a domestic double — after winning the Supporters' Shield — against the streaking New York Red Bulls.
As always, all bets are for 90-minute results not including penalties unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Here are our best bets for the opening MLS playoff weekend.
| LAFC Odds | -182 |
| Vancouver Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
In an analytical sense, LAFC have posted some of the best home numbers in the league. Their +18.9 expected goal (xG) differential across 17 home games is the best in MLS. Their 36 home goals scored is second-best in the Western Conference, and their 10 home wins are tied for third in the West.
So, why do I like the Whitecaps on a +1 goal handicap here? For starters, while the Whitecaps overall have posted just a solid MLS season, Vanni Sartini's group has finally developed more of an edge on the road after they took 10 points from a brutal seven-match summer road trip.
Meanwhile, the LAFC brilliance that was so consistent early in the season has only been on evidence in flashes following the disappointment of a loss in the CONCACAF Champions League final in early June. And the fact these teams have already faced each other on four occasions — two each in CCL and the league, including a 1-1 draw in Vancouver last weekend — means there will be very few secrets, which in my view is likely to make for a closer affair.
But the biggest reason to back Vancouver is that LAFC's gaudy numbers are skewed a bit by beating up on the league's worst. The Black-and-Gold have only beaten two playoff teams by multiple goals at home this season — a New England side that began their game with 2021 MLS MVP Carles Gil on the bench and a St. Louis team that has suffered a few hefty road defeats despite winning the West.
Vancouver have only taken one win and one draw off playoff teams on the road, but both of those results came since the start of the summer, including a previous 3-2 win at LAFC.
Overall, though, it's more about the Black-and-Gold's inability to put away more difficult opponents at home. Bettors who backed the visitor +1 goal in those games went 6-2-2 when those teams were playoff qualifiers. In a 1-goal LAFC win, the bet pushes.
That's worth a play at +100 odds and a 50.0% implied probability, but you might wait and see if you get an even better price, since late money quite often comes in on LAFC's side.
Pick: Vancouver +1 goal (+100 via DraftKings)
| Cincinnati Odds | -110 |
| RBNY Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
The average MLS team wins about 50% of its matches. So, why is Supporters' Shield-winning FC Cincinnati only a moderate -110 favorite against the eighth-seeded New York Red Bulls?
Part of it is the RBNY form, with manager Troy Lesense's side winning four in a row now, including an impressive 5-2 victory over Charlotte FC in Wednesday's East Wild Card Game.
Part of it is a history of Shield-winning teams struggling recently in the first round of the playoffs, albeit in the recently abandoned format that sometimes forced those top seeds to wait three weeks following their final regular season game.
Part of it is xG metrics which the Red Bulls have lagged all season. And part of it is two previous meetings between these teams in which the away side won both.
But on closer look, there's the recent success of Lesense's group should come with some skepticism.
The Red Bulls lost their first seven away matches this season against opponents who reached the playoffs. And when they finally earned victories over playoff teams on the road, both Cincinnati and Nashville had wrapped up not only their postseason place but their exact playoff seed.
In Cincy's case, the Red Bulls were their first opponent after clinching the Shield.
Additionally, the postseason typically favors teams with individual playmakers to a greater degree than the regular season. That's something Cincy has in spades in MLS MVP frontrunner Luciano Acosta and strikers Brandon Vazquez and Aaron Boupendza. And it's something the Red Bulls don't unless it's John Tolkin standing over a free kick.
So I'm backing the hosts here, tying it to a parlay on the total coming in under 3.5 at +170 odds and an implied 37% probability. It's a wager that has hit 45% of the time between Cincy home games and RBNY away fixtures against playoff qualifiers. And between these teams, more than three goals have only been scored once in 11 all-time meetings in MLS-governed competition.
Unlike the Vancouver spread wager, I don't think this is one to wait on.
